AT&T bought T-mobile...

[90GT50]

Tmobile's 4G will still work though, reportedly. Come on in in april and get a new 4G phone.

[mustangguy289]

So will calls to Tmobile customers now be free as far as minutes are concerned?

[90GT50]

So will calls to Tmobile customers now be free as far as minutes are concerned?

If the deal goes through, I would assume so, I don't see why not.

[90GT50]

We touched on this in the wrap-up of this mornings AT&T Press call but apparently it’s causing such a stir we’re going to try and clarify a few things:

With AT&T planning to use T-Mobile’s existing 1700 MHz spectrum for future LTE rollouts, AT&T execs are saying that T-Mobile customers will have to replace their current 3G/4G phones once the merger is completed. This will be a mandatory upgrade unless of course you want your phone to work on edge only.

The spectrum they use for third-generation services, or 3G, will be re-purposed for 4G, which is faster. That would leave current T-Mobile phones without 3G. They would need to be replaced with phones that use AT&T’s 3G frequencies. Ralph de la Vega, AT&T’s head of wireless and consumer services, said this will happen as part of the normal phone upgrade process. “There’s nothing for them to worry about … it will be done over time, in a way that’s good for customers and good for AT&T,” says Ralph de la Vega.

This is bad news, no way around it, however the only way to positively spin this is that any change won’t occur for some time. The merger is expected to close sometime within 12-18 months and that’s when the real work begins. It could take years before the time comes where T-Mobile customers will be in a situation where they will be forced to make the switch. It’s not going to happen overnight and it’s likely if you were to sign a 2 year contract tomorrow, you’d run it out before you’d have to give it up.

So what will AT&T do for customers who are forced to give up their equipment? AT&T has mentioned that the cost of issuing replacement phones was built into the cost of the deal itself. Will they be giving away free phones that are of equal or better value? There is no way to answer that question yet but AT&T would have a riot on their hands if they just expected all T-Mobile customers to up and pay for new equipment.

Should you buy a new T-Mobile phone right now? Absolutely. There is no reason to suspect you’d have to get rid of the phone in any time frame that wouldn’t’ allow you to get your money’s worth. Aside from that, this deal is going to drive the FCC and DOJ crazy and until it’s approved, we can’t act as though it’s already happened.

T-Mobile has tried to clear up that they are still two separate companies. T-Mobile is going about business as usual and so should you. If you want the HTC Pyramid, get it! The T-Mobile G2X? Get it and then use it in good health.

http://www.tmonews.com/2011/03/will-t-mobile-customers-will-have-to-replace-phones-after-merger-completes/

[Lason]

One nice thing is I believe ATT is doing the same as Verizon is, buyiing used phones and giving pretty good money for them. I know when Verizon started selling the iphones, people with ATT iphone 4's could sell them to Verizon and it would cover the price of the phone and even some left over to go towards their first bill.

[90GT50]

One nice thing is I believe ATT is doing the same as Verizon is, buyiing used phones and giving pretty good money for them. I know when Verizon started selling the iphones, people with ATT iphone 4's could sell them to Verizon and it would cover the price of the phone and even some left over to go towards their first bill.

Sprint does that, too.

[helosailor]

They better buy back my 2 month old Blackberry Curve 3G then...bastards.

[STROKD]

Im lovin it... Won't have broke fucks calling me anymore saying my plans are over priced when you have no cheap ass service to go to...

[Scott Mc]

Fuck, and I just desided to buy a tab through them instead of going to Verizons full deal package. This sucks. T moble has been good to me.

[Ted]

How old is your SIM?

I lost my original one in 2006 I think, so about 5 years old.

[slow99]

The note we published on the subject:

SUMMARY:
*NOT MUCH SHORT TERM SPENDING IMPACT… In advance of the deal close, we’d naturally expect that AT&T Wireless and T-Mobile USA would continue to operate as independent entities. As such, sheer network traffic growth (and maintenance of service quality) will continue to be a primary motivation of capital spending.

*SOME NEGATIVE INTERMEDIATE TERM IMPACT… We think there will likely be some spending disruption immediately preceding, during, and after the deal close twelve months from now. We would likely see some pause as the two sides refocus their energies into: organizational integration and network integration. It’s hard to quantify how significant this could be for the vendors.

*A LONGER-TERM NEGATIVE FOR VENDORS… We see this merger as a longer term negative for the equipment vendors in general. AT&T, of course, expects to capture longer term merger synergies and network efficiencies via the combination – a drag on capital spending at the combined entity.

*VENDOR IMPACTS -- POSITIVE FOR TEKELEC. We see Tekelec as an intermediate-term beneficiary of the deal. In prior mergers among major wireless operators, the company has benefited from a significant increase in Signaling infrastructure purchases.

*VENDOR IMPACTS -- POSITIVE FOR ALCATEL-LUCENT. We note that Ericsson and Nokia-Siemens are the dominant wireless infrastructure vendors at T-Mobile USA. Meanwhile, Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent are the dominant vendors at AT&T Wireless. Our assumption is that, over time, Alcatel-Lucent (a domain vendor) would gain market share in the combined entity.




DETAILS:
AT&T TO ACQUIRE T-MOBILE USA – OUR TAKEAWAYS… Yesterday, AT&T announced that they are acquiring T-Mobile USA and merging the business into their AT&T Wireless business. The deal is expected to close in approximately 12 months. Assuming the transaction passes federal antitrust scrutiny, we see the deal as an incremental negative for equipment vendors. Our thoughts are detailed below...

NOT MUCH SHORT TERM SPENDING IMPACT… In advance of the deal close, we’d naturally expect that AT&T Wireless and T-Mobile USA would continue to operate as independent entities. As such, sheer network traffic growth (and maintenance of service quality) will continue to be a primary motivation of capital spending. We note, for example, that both organizations have been aggressively expanding their network capacity via 3G carrier additions and HSPA+ network upgrades. We would expect this activity to continue unabated. Similarly, we expect that AT&T Wireless will continue to roll out its LTE network deployment aggressively – obviously, LTE remains a big piece of the plan for the combined company going forward.

SOME NEGATIVE INTERMEDIATE TERM IMPACT – We think there will likely be some spending disruption immediately preceding, during, and after the deal close twelve months from now. Of course, the two networks overlap each other – we would likely see some pause as the two sides refocus their energies into: organizational integration and network integration. Historically, we’ve seen some pause in spending as mergers of this size have been consummated (Sprint /Nextel, AT&T Wireless/Cingular for example). It’s hard to quantify how significant this could be for the vendors. Speed and precision of the merger integration will be a factor here.

A LONGER-TERM NEGATIVE FOR THE EQUIPMENT VENDORS… We see this merger as a clear longer term negative for the equipment vendors in general. AT&T, of course, expects to capture longer term merger synergies and network efficiencies via the combination with T-Mobile USA. The operator expects $3 billion in synergies three years after closing (the press release isn’t clear on how much of these are operating expenses, capital expenditures, or revenue synergies). Longer term, cost savings are expected to come from "network efficiencies, subscriber and support savings, reduced churn and avoided capital and spectrum expenditures."

For the equipment vendors, it’s clear that overall industry capital spending is maximized in an environment where there are a lot of operators in a competitive market environment – the scenario, in theory, motivates each operator to build networks less efficiently – i.e. overall spending is higher. In the wake of the AT&T / T-Mobile, the combined entity will clearly be able to spend capital more efficiently. One other consideration, there won’t be any 4G network deployment from T-Mobile USA. A number of our industry contacts at the Mobile World Congress trade show in Barcelona were seeing evidence that T-Mobile might be gearing up for a more substantial network deployment. The operator, of course, never announced any plans for an LTE deployment, instead focusing on HDSP+ network upgrades. Of course, that potential 4G spend won’t happen with T-Mobile as a standalone entity. Below, we’ve detailed our initial thoughts on what the merger means for vendors within our research group.


VENDOR IMPACTS:
INCREMENTAL POSITIVES –

Tekelec (TKLC, Hold, $7.44). We see Tekelec as an intermediate-term beneficiary of the deal. In prior mergers among major wireless operators (AT&T Wireless / Cingular, Sprint/Nextel), the company has benefitted from a significant increase in Signaling infrastructure purchases. We note that – once these deals closed – the operators built out their signaling networks such that subscribers from one carrier can roam onto the other carrier’s network and vice versa. As such, the operators can immediately get the network coverage benefits associated with the merger. We assume that the same thing will occur with the AT&T Wireless / T-Mobile deal. AT&T has historically been a 15%-22% customer for Tekelec in recent quarters. T-Mobile, similarly, has been a 10% customer for the company from time to time.

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU, Buy, $5.07). We note that Ericsson and Nokia-Siemens are the dominant wireless infrastructure vendors at T-Mobile USA. Meanwhile, Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent are the dominant vendors at AT&T Wireless. Our assumption is that, over time, Alcatel-Lucent (a domain vendor) would gain market share in the combined entity. Nokia-Siemens Networks would lose share. We assume that AT&T’s announcement of a LTE network expansion in concert with the deal would also be incrementally beneficial for Alcatel-Lucent and Ericsson. Over the intermediate term, of course, Alcatel-Lucent could get impacted by slowing infrastructure spending as the two sides complete the merger and integrate. Also, the incremental network efficiencies and capex savings associated with the deal could partly offset some of the potential market share gains the organization could get. We estimate that AT&T Wireless accounts for 5%+ of Alcatel-Lucent’s sales right now.

NEUTRAL…

Any Vendor Attached to the AT&T IP Aggregation Buildout… Ciena (CIEN, Underperform, $23.10), Juniper Networks (JNPR, Buy, $40.26), and Adtran (ADTN, Hold, $44.80)… We assume that AT&T’s IP Aggregation network architecture will be the preferred wireless backhaul strategy for the combined entity longer term. We note that T-Mobile had a unique wireless backhaul strategy – under their Alternative Access Vendor (AAV) program, they designed cell site backhaul strategies to be executed by various CLECs and cable operators. Ciena, of course, plays into the AT&T Wireless infrastructure via its World Wide Packets product line for wireless backhaul applications within the AT&T IP Aggregation network buildout. Adtran’s TA5000, similarly, gets deployed in AT&T central offices for aggregation of traffic off of cell sites. Juniper also plays into the IP-Aggregation build via its MX 480 and MX 960 routers for wireless traffic aggregation. The IP Aggregation network, of course, is still in early innings (the wireless carrier has had OSS integration issues with the network). Nonetheless, each of these vendors stands to benefit assuming the combined entity goes with AT&T’s strategy for backhaul. This benefit could get partly offset by some lost market share on the T-Mobile side. Ciena, for example, sells World Wide Packets devices into Comcast which in turn does some of the backhaul work for T-Mobile USA. Juniper and Adtran may have the same issue in some instances. Lastly, we expect that all three of these vendors would feel the impact of spending disruptions associated with the deal’s completion and the subsequent integration of the two companies.

NEGATIVE…

Nokia-Siemens Networks… A Tangential Impact… Besides the long-term market share issue we highlighted above, we note that NSN is the major supplier of wireless infrastructure to LightSquared. That 4G network deployment, of course, is still getting off of the ground (many industry participants have concerns about the viability of the network). We note that LightSquared was pursuing a wholesaling strategy to other wireless operators without a 4G network plan. One of those prospective customers was T-Mobile USA. Now, in the wake of this deal, T-Mobile USA won’t require LightSquared’s services and the viability of Light Squared gets a bit more uncertain.

[90GT50]

I lost my original one in 2006 I think, so about 5 years old.

Go ahead and go by a tmobile store and tell them you need a new one, should be free to upgrade sims. Just make sure they transfer your contacts over to the new sim. Make sure you save your sim contacts to your phone before going in, too. That way you don't lose any. That SHOULD fix your problem.

[BP]

Im lovin it... Won't have broke fucks calling me anymore saying my plans are over priced when you have no cheap ass service to go to...

Did they buy MetroPCS?

[90GT50]

Did they buy MetroPCS?

Or Boost, or Virgin...
I wouldn't be surprised if MetroPCS gets a shitload more subscribers soon if the merger goes through.