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  • West Coast Quake Next?



    GEOLOGIST: ALARMING MAGNETIC FIELD CHANGES SIGNAL MAJOR QUAKE FOR WEST COAST
    By Terrence Aym
    Helium
    March 16, 2011

    Original Link

    A former United States Geological Survey scientist says a major quake on the West Coast is imminent.

    Jim Berkland predicts earthquakes…accurately.

    Never heard of him? Perhaps you should — especially if you live on or near the West Coast of the United States, or know someone that does.

    Anyone with an average 80 percent success rate predicting earthquakes should command attention, and lately Berkland has been in the limelight of the national media.

    “The people that say you cannot predict earthquakes, they don’t know what they are talking about,” Berkland told the Santa Cruz Sentinel during a 2009 interview.

    Appearing on late night radio shows for many years, since the great quake and tsunami that struck northeastern Japan the retired geologist has been finding his booking calendar full. His unpronounceable and difficult-to-spell website, syzygyjob.com, has crashed several times after his latest appearances on FOXNews with Neil Cavuto and the popular talk radio host Michael Savage’s show.

    While Berkland has scored many direct hits with earthquake predictions — they fall within his self-described “seismec window” — his greatest claim to fame was his accurate prediction of the powerful 1989 temblor that rocked San Fransisco four days before it occurred.

    Now the earthquake prognosticator admits he’s worried about the prospects of a strong quake hitting the West Coast of the US sometime during March 2011, particularly around March 19th.

    The “ring of fire” that encircles the Pacific rim includes the region from Alaska south to South America. During the past several years earthquake and volcanic activity has been on the upswing all along the rim except on the northeastern perimeter.

    Berkland believes that’s about to change. He told as much to Cavuto: “The month of October, March, and April are the three most devastating earthquakes in terms of damage in the San Francisco Bay Area in history. And we are having on the 19th of this month not only the full moon, but within an hour the closest approach of the moon to the earth until the year 2016. The next day is the equinoctial tides. So you’re bringing together three of the maximum tide raising forces. We know about the ocean tides. But there is also an Earth tide. And there is a tide in the ground water. All of these help to release sudden, built up strain, and cause earthquakes.”

    Although thought by many of his peers to be a maverick, Berkland remains unfazed. His track record far outstrips any of his critics.

    His approach to predicting earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is certainly non-traditional. Using tidal flooding tables based upon lunar perigees — times when the moon is closest in its orbit to the earth having a measurable impact on gravitational pull — and the bi-monthly alignment of the sun and moon, he calculates percentage risk of probable events in given regions.

    He also takes other things into consideration like the measurement of change in the magnetic field that he says are indications of changes in the earth’s core and mantle. Tip offs of such changes can be seen in strange animal behavior such as lost pets and the mass beaching of whales and other sea creatures. Birds also provide clues.

    Recent research on the geomagnetic field and its relation to tectonic plates, earthquakes, and volcanic action tends to support his hypotheses.

    Berkland says that the approaching seismic window is one of the largest in many years. He sees it developing between the 19th to the 26th of March 2011.

    In the FOXNews interview he stressed, “I’m saying we just had a massive fish kill. Maybe a million fish died in Redondo Beach. They had a massive fish sweep in Mexico. We just had a bunch of whales come in close to San Diego.”

    Berkland is convinced that subtle changes in the magnetic field are the precursors to large earthquakes.

    “Changes in the magnetic field often precede larger earthquakes. Most animals have the mineral magnetite in their bodies, including people.” Magnetite, a form of ferrous oxide, is very sensitive to magnetic fields.

    “Just before the World Series quake,” he explained, “there was very unusual beaching of rare whales in the Ocean Beach, in San Francisco. Just after that, an equally rare pygmy sperm whale washed up at Santa Cruz, within about five miles of the epicenter of the World Series quake. That kind of beaching had never occurred before nor since. So we’re looking for strange fish coming into from deep water to the shallow water, wild animals coming into cities.

    “I used to just scoff at these kinds of things, because I was a mainstream geologist until I found out that earthquakes are fitting a pattern. The big earthquake in the Indian Ocean followed massive beachings of whales in Taiwan — and not [just] Taiwan, but New Zealand and Australia and Tasmania. And then within couple of days, they had a 8.3 in south of New Zealand, and then came the 9.1 in the Indian Ocean, with the big tsunami, on the very day of the full moon.”

    The last really big quake that occurred on the northeastern rim of the ring of fire occurred in Alaska.

    “The previous big quake and tsunami was in Alaska, which was a 9.2 magnitude event, on the day off the full moon, on the 27th of March.”

    That mega-thrust earthquake, known today as The Great Alaskan Earthquake, hit at 5:36 P.M. Alaska Standard Time on Good Friday, March 27, 1964. The ground split open, highways buckled, entire buildings collapsed and several tsunamis were generated. About 131 people died.

    When asked if the quake that’s coming will be another 9.0 event, Berkland admitted he just didn’t know.

  • #2
    I believe it. Animals are definitely good tellers of things to come.

    Comment


    • #3
      I was reading somewhere that Memphis is the US city most at-risk.
      ZOMBIE REAGAN FOR PRESIDENT 2016!!! heh

      Comment


      • #4
        I've been reading random stories all week about March 19 and 'something big.' One even predicted a quake in TX.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Strychnine View Post
          I've been reading random stories all week about March 19 and 'something big.' One even predicted a quake in TX.

          Comment


          • #6
            I truly believe any event can be forseen and predicted accurately. The problem is we just don't know how to do this yet. We are lacking in studies and knowledge of the forces at work here. One day I believe we will have the capabilities to predict all natural disasters, if our species can survive that long.

            Comment


            • #7
              Hmm, my wife's birthday is the 19th.. maybe I can get her a massive earthquake for it?

              Stevo
              Originally posted by SSMAN
              ...Welcome to the land of "Fuck it". No body cares, and if they do, no body cares.

              Comment


              • #8
                Feel Safer now...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by stevo View Post
                  Hmm, my wife's birthday is the 19th.. maybe I can get her a massive earthquake for it?

                  Stevo
                  ha, mine is too...
                  Ring and pinion specialist

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Time to buy alcohol and ammo, lol. It reminds me of the Kurt Russell movie escape LA. Sounds like we have a real life prequill. Only time will tell.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Yale View Post
                      I was reading somewhere that Memphis is the US city most at-risk.
                      Yep. New Madrid fault line. In 1812 it had an 8 that made the Mississippi flow backwards.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Phil Plait, of BadAstronomy and Discover Magazine (where this is from) notoriety:







                        No, the “supermoon” didn’t cause the Japanese earthquake


                        [UPDATE: I have posted an article with more info on the earthquake and where you can donate money toward the relief efforts.]

                        Japan suffered a massive earthquake last night, measuring nearly magnitude 9. This is one of the largest quakes in its history, causing widespread and severe damage. Before I say anything else, I’m greatly saddened by the loss of life in Japan, and I’ll be donating to disaster relief organizations to help them get in there and do what they can to give aid to those in need.

                        While there isn’t much I can do to directly help the situation in Japan, I do hope I can help mitigate the panic and worry that can happen due to people blaming this earthquake on the so-called "supermoon" — a date when the Moon is especially close to the Earth at the same time it’s full. So let me be extremely clear:

                        Despite what a lot of people are saying, there is no way this earthquake was caused by the Moon.

                        The idea of the Moon affecting us on Earth isn’t total nonsense, but it cannot be behind this earthquake, and almost certainly won’t have any actual, measurable effect on us on March 19, when the full Moon is at its closest.

                        So, how can I be so sure?

                        The gravity of the situation

                        Here’s the deal. The Moon orbits the Earth in an ellipse, so sometimes it’s closer to us and sometimes farther away. At perigee (closest point) it can be as close as 354,000 km (220,000 miles). At apogee, it can be as far as 410,000 km (254,000 miles). Since the Moon orbits the Earth every month or so, it goes between these two extremes every two weeks. So if, say, it’s at apogee on the first of the month, it’ll be at perigee in the middle of the month, two weeks later.

                        The strength of gravity depends on distance, so the gravitational effects of the Moon on the Earth are strongest at perigee.

                        However, the Moon is nowhere near perigee right now!

                        The Moon was at apogee on March 6, and will be at perigee on March 19. When the earthquake in Japan hit last night, the Moon was about 400,000 km (240,000 miles) away. So not only was it not at its closest point, it was actually farther away than it usually is on average.

                        So again, this earthquake in Japan had nothing to do with the Moon.

                        Time and tide

                        So why would people think this is due to the Moon?

                        On March 19, the Moon will be at perigee –about 354,000 km away. However, on that date it will also be full, and this has an effect on tides.

                        You can read my detailed essay on tides on my old website. The bullet points are that the Sun has an effect on our tides here on Earth, as does the Moon. When the Sun, Earth, and Moon are near a straight line in space — that is, at new or full Moon — these effects are maximized. We get what are called spring tides, with extra-high high tides, and extra-low low tides.

                        If this happens at perigee, the effects are even stronger. The tidal force from the Moon can be as much as 50% greater! While that sounds dangerous, it’s not like we’ll see huge earthquakes and roaring tidal waves from this, because even at their strongest, the tidal forces are fairly weak. It does mean people in low-lying regions and who usually experience monthly spring tide floods should take extra precautions, but it won’t be the epic disaster some people are breathlessly claiming.

                        The pseudoscience

                        The UK newspaper Daily Mail has a shameful article up asking if the Japan earthquake was caused by this "supermoon". While they do ask a geologist and an astronomer about it — and they both say it’s silly — the article spends quite a bit of its space whipping up fears that the gravity of the Moon will cause volcano eruptions and earthquakes.

                        I’ll note that the person who is making this claim, and who first called this effect a "supermoon", is an astrologer. Yeah. Let me be clear here as well: astrology doesn’t work. At all.

                        And that sort of thinking has failed here again. Study after study has shown that big earthquakes are not caused by the Moon, super or otherwise. It would make some sort of sense to think that maybe there is a connection, since the Moon pulls on the Earth, and the majority of earthquakes are caused by tectonic plates slipping past or under each other. However, you can look at the timing of earthquakes versus the distance (and phase) of the Moon, and at best there is a weak correlation between shallow, low intensity quakes and the Moon… and certainly none with major quakes.

                        Think about it: if there were some connection, and it were this obvious, geologists and seismologists would be issuing warnings every perigee and every full Moon. These are people who have devoted their lives to understanding how the Earth shakes, and would be screaming their heads off if it were something as easy and obvious as the Moon. They don’t because there’s no connection.

                        A storm isn’t rising

                        What about weather? This one is a bit tougher.

                        The tides from the Moon and Sun affect our oceans and large bodies of water, and they also affect the solid Earth — the land under you rises and falls by about a meter every single day as the Earth spins under the Moon!

                        As it happens, the tides affect the atmosphere as well. Since air is not solid or liquid, and has no real edge, the movement of air up and down due to tides is difficult to measure. But again, we can measure the dates and times of storms and other bad weather and compare it to the Moon, and to the best of my knowledge there is no correlation at all. Remember, meteorologists, like the other scientists I mentioned before, want to save lives. If they thought the Moon had any effect, they’d be all over it!

                        An article on Accuweather may be at the heart of this. The author repeats the claims of the astrologer I mentioned above, who links storms to the Moon. The article says:

                        There were SuperMoons in 1955, 1974, 1992 and 2005. These years had their share of extreme weather and other natural events. Is the Super Moon and these natural occurrences a coincidence? Some would say yes; some would say no. I’m not here to pick sides and say I’m a believer or non-believer in subjects like this, but as a scientist I know enough to ask questions and try to find answers.

                        But as I said before, the gravity of the Moon is strongest at perigee, and the Moon orbits the Earth once a month. There are actually 12 – 13 perigee every single year, so saying there was wild weather in a year when the Moon happened to be at perigee when it was full is meaningless. Unless the wild weather happened on the actual date of the "supermoon" then it must be coincidence, because on other dates the Moon was farther from the Earth!

                        Mind you, there are tens of thousands of thunderstorms on our planet each and every day, and conditions which give rise to them can take days to build. It’s hard therefore to correlate any given weather system with the Moon.

                        And it gets worse. Like where the Accuweather article says this:

                        AccuWeather Facebook fanpage member Daniel Vogler adds, "The last extreme super moon occurred was on January 10th, 2005, right around the time of the 9.0 Indonesia earthquake. That extreme super moon was a new moon. So be forewarned…"

                        The problem here is that this is total nonsense. The huge Indonesian earthquake was on December 26th, 2004: fully two weeks before the Moon was at perigee. In other words, that earthquake happened when the Moon was nearly at its farthest from the Earth, minimizing its effect on us.

                        But back to weather: it’s caused by an incredibly complex interaction between the Earth’s rotation, the heat input from the Sun, the way the oceans and seas absorb and radiate heat, and a million other factors. If the Moon contributes in any way, it is very, very small compared to these other massive factors.

                        Conclusion

                        We humans like to connect events in our heads, even if they have nothing to do with each other. Skeptics refer to this as "Correlation does not imply causation". In other words, just because two things happen near the same time or place doesn’t mean one actually caused the other. Out of such things are superstitions born.

                        Or "supermoons". I cannot say that there will be no earthquakes, volcano eruptions, or major storms come March 19 when the full Moon is at perigee. It would be silly to say that, since it’s entirely possible there will be, and in fact, given how common these disasters, I can practically guarantee there will be something that happens on that date! Just as there will be on March 18, and March 20, and June 17, and September 30, and and and.

                        But I can be fairly certain that if such events happen, they have little or nothing to do with our Moon. And the earthquake in Japan certainly had nothing to do with the Moon, since our satellite was actually closer to its farthest point in its orbit than its nearest!

                        I expect we’ll be seeing more terrible coverage of this as March 19 approaches. I’m already seeing it on Twitter and in the mainstream media (and we know how bad they are at covering science), and getting lots of emails from people who are hearing it from friends and family.
                        Last edited by Strychnine; 03-16-2011, 09:50 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Trip McNeely View Post
                          Yep. New Madrid fault line. In 1812 it had an 8 that made the Mississippi flow backwards.

                          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone
                          I has been told by the Native Americans living in east Texas that earthquake caused the formation of Caddo Lake.

                          Stevo
                          Originally posted by SSMAN
                          ...Welcome to the land of "Fuck it". No body cares, and if they do, no body cares.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I hope we never have an earthquake of ANY significance near Dallas or Fort Worth. We have 2 nuclear reactors just about 80 miles south of here at Comanche Peak that were not built to ANY earthquake standards. Dallas should look nice glowing in the dark.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Yale View Post
                              I was reading somewhere that Memphis is the US city most at-risk.
                              Originally posted by Strychnine View Post
                              I've been reading random stories all week about March 19 and 'something big.' One even predicted a quake in TX.
                              Yep my money is on New Madrid.

                              Comment

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