We have two dynamics at work:
1. Mideast unrest and a worsening stock market (an over improved stock market and profit taking). This means the US Treasury Market and Mortgage Bond market is a safe haven for investors and thus we have what is called “a flight to quality”. Rates have gotten better.
2. We have increasing oil and gas prices and decreasing value of the dollar. The value of the dollar is being pressured by rising oil prices. Remember, the dollar is the currency the world’s oil producers use to sell their oil. I also think as we keep printing money to pay for the debt this will exacerbate the problem. All this is inflationary and bad for interest rates.
Right now #1 is winning. For how long is the million dollar question. I guess as long as Libyan strong man Colonel Mouammar Qaddafi stays in Libya, the unrest will stay. Libya has vast oil reserves and the country is basically in a civil war. Qaddafi has even called for the destruction of some of the oil wells. He knows he could be facing a small cell in “GITMO” if he loses. Sounds like Saddam towards the end.
Eventually, I think the markets will return to the fundamentals of rising energy and food costs, a huge national debt and incredibly some job creation and I think this will drive rates back up.
If your borrower likes the rate, I sure would convince them to lock while the “gettin- is- good”.
From a very educated secondary hedge manager.
1. Mideast unrest and a worsening stock market (an over improved stock market and profit taking). This means the US Treasury Market and Mortgage Bond market is a safe haven for investors and thus we have what is called “a flight to quality”. Rates have gotten better.
2. We have increasing oil and gas prices and decreasing value of the dollar. The value of the dollar is being pressured by rising oil prices. Remember, the dollar is the currency the world’s oil producers use to sell their oil. I also think as we keep printing money to pay for the debt this will exacerbate the problem. All this is inflationary and bad for interest rates.
Right now #1 is winning. For how long is the million dollar question. I guess as long as Libyan strong man Colonel Mouammar Qaddafi stays in Libya, the unrest will stay. Libya has vast oil reserves and the country is basically in a civil war. Qaddafi has even called for the destruction of some of the oil wells. He knows he could be facing a small cell in “GITMO” if he loses. Sounds like Saddam towards the end.
Eventually, I think the markets will return to the fundamentals of rising energy and food costs, a huge national debt and incredibly some job creation and I think this will drive rates back up.
If your borrower likes the rate, I sure would convince them to lock while the “gettin- is- good”.
From a very educated secondary hedge manager.
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