SpaceX just made history.

[AnthonyS]

I am not sure if this is true. Strychnine can certainly weigh in, as he is the most educated here, but I have read a few analytical reports that say when the off shore wells start to drop in production that the price will go back up because those wells produce a lot of crude (30% of global supply) and they are not feasible to replace at current pricing because they are very capital intensive and take a lot of lead time.

Well I'm absolutely freaking positive. I'd tell you what I'm doing right now but we have a non disclosure agreement with this client. Running out of oil is a BS myth used to scare people and drive up prices. Offshore isn't even hardly explored much less developed. Electric cars probably are the future but it isn't because of some dire need.

[Broncojohnny]

Well I'm absolutely freaking positive. I'd tell you what I'm doing right now but we have a non disclosure agreement with this client. Running out of oil is a BS myth used to scare people and drive up prices. Offshore isn't even hardly explored much less developed. Electric cars probably are the future but it isn't because of some dire need.

There could be a million years worth of oil under the ocean but it does nothing if it costs $100 a barrel to extract. Right now you can extract Brent in Northern Kurdistan for $8 a barrel so why isn't the current price $8 a barrel? Because there is a lot more to the oil business than how much of it is in the ground.

[AnthonyS]

There could be a million years worth of oil under the ocean but it does nothing if it costs $100 a barrel to extract. Right now you can extract Brent in Northern Kurdistan for $8 a barrel so why isn't the current price $8 a barrel? Because there is a lot more to the oil business than how much of it is in the ground.

I'm probably aware of that. And technology continues to increase reserves and drive down costs. The fact remains that all of the technological hurdles to alternative energy are yet to be resolved and conventional energy is more anundant and getting cheaper everyday. Like I said remove greed and taxation and conventional energy has no competition.

[Strychnine]

The fact remains that all of the technological hurdles to alternative energy are yet to be resolved and conventional energy is more anundant and getting cheaper everyday.

You don't have to solve ALL of the tech hurdles, just enough of them.
('m not saying renewables are going to totally displace carbon fuels - you still need nighttime generation and dispatchable baseload power (quick start combined cycle NG) to backup these renewable sources)

Renewable energy is becoming so cheap the US will meet Paris commitments even if Trump withdraws


Research analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that renewable energy like solar and wind power are hurtling towards a level of ubiquity where not even politics can hinder them. Renewable energy is simply becoming the cheapest option, fast. Basic economics, the analysts say, suggest that the US will exceed its commitments in the Paris agreement regardless of whether or not president Donald Trump withdraws, as he’s stated he will.

“We project that by 2020, renewables will be the cheapest form of new-power generation across the globe,” with the exception of a few countries in Southeast Asia, the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report published Thursday.

“By our forecasts, in most cases favorable renewables economics rather than government policy will be the primary driver of changes to utilities’ carbon emissions levels,” they wrote. “For example, notwithstanding president Trump’s stated intention to withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord, we expect the US to exceed the Paris commitment of a 26-28% reduction in its 2005-level carbon emissions by 2020.”

Globally, the price of solar panels has fallen 50% between 2016 and 2017, they write. And in countries with favorable wind conditions, the costs associated with wind power “can be as low as one-half to one-third that of coal- or natural gas-fired power plants.” Innovations in wind-turbine design are allowing for ever-longer wind blades; that boost in efficiency will also increase power output from the wind sector, according to Morgan Stanley.

Even in Australia, where the political climate is hostile to renewables, Morgan Stanley sees hope in the slightly longer-term: “In Australia, we anticipate that by 2020, renewables will provide ~28% of grid-supplied energy, including over 60% in South Australia.”

https://qz.com/1024520/renewable-energy-is-becoming-so-cheap-the-us-will-meet-paris-commitments-even-if-trump-withdraws/

Gratuitous name drop: I'm having drinks this weekend with the finance director for the Anschutz Wind River project ($5B / 1,000 turbine project in WY) - he also used to be the VP of investment banking for Morgan Stanley’s global power and utilities group. If I ask, I know he'll give me his completely honest thoughts on whether current ~$45/bbl oil (or better yet the $3/MMBtu NatGas) prices have any bearing on their strategy or if they're just doing their own thing - will advise in a few days.

[AnthonyS]

I can't say where I'm at or what I'm doing thanks to a non disclosure agreement but $45 a barrel oil is a market construct not an actual physical one. Hedge fund managers and Goldman Sachs gotta make their money.

[Broncojohnny]

I can't say where I'm at or what I'm doing thanks to a non disclosure agreement but $45 a barrel oil is a market construct not an actual physical one. Hedge fund managers and Goldman Sachs gotta make their money.

Of course it is. The entire financial market is just a quoting system. Why is a share of JNJ worth $130? Because someone will pay that. There is nothing sinister about that. There is no conspiracy.

Is the true market clearing price of oil $35 a barrel? Maybe. Is it $10? Fuck no

[AnthonyS]

Of course it is. The entire financial market is just a quoting system. Why is a share of JNJ worth $130? Because someone will pay that. There is nothing sinister about that. There is no conspiracy.

Is the true market clearing price of oil $35 a barrel? Maybe. Is it $10? Fuck no

Depends on your view of things. I personally have no use for people getting rich off the backs of others for doing jack shit. Unfortunately, when other countries and economies of scale are involved there will always be over regulation and middlemen involved to jack up costs. At the end of the day they contribute and add about as much real value as tits on a bull.

[jw33]

Cool footage from the launch/recovery the other day. This was a used Falcon rocket and a used Dragon capsule.

[mschmoyer]

Great video. Watched live and looks like they're trying to add different shots and angles each launch. Pretty amazing to look at the smoke trail and see that the booster is not flying straight retrograde -- it's diagonal there most of the way down. Still blows my mind this is even possible, much less reliably. Cool stuff!

[Strychnine]

Here's the Falcon Heavy plan for January

[Gargamel]

Ya gotta wonder if Elon Musk has got his version of a bat cave somewhere with tons of cool shit no one knows about.

[Craizie]

B-e-a-utiful.

[4bangen]

Ya gotta wonder if Elon Musk has got his version of a bat cave somewhere with tons of cool shit no one knows about.

I would assume at least an escape pod type rocket hidden full of supplies so that he can jump ship if the apocalypse comes.

[Gasser64]

So they're getting pretty good at this... whens mars colony?

[blandnuts]

Cecil Peoples would even score it a win!