SpaceX just made history.

[Broncojohnny]

I can't say where I'm at or what I'm doing thanks to a non disclosure agreement but $45 a barrel oil is a market construct not an actual physical one. Hedge fund managers and Goldman Sachs gotta make their money.

Of course it is. The entire financial market is just a quoting system. Why is a share of JNJ worth $130? Because someone will pay that. There is nothing sinister about that. There is no conspiracy.

Is the true market clearing price of oil $35 a barrel? Maybe. Is it $10? Fuck no

[AnthonyS]

I can't say where I'm at or what I'm doing thanks to a non disclosure agreement but $45 a barrel oil is a market construct not an actual physical one. Hedge fund managers and Goldman Sachs gotta make their money.

[Strychnine]

The fact remains that all of the technological hurdles to alternative energy are yet to be resolved and conventional energy is more anundant and getting cheaper everyday.

You don't have to solve ALL of the tech hurdles, just enough of them.
('m not saying renewables are going to totally displace carbon fuels - you still need nighttime generation and dispatchable baseload power (quick start combined cycle NG) to backup these renewable sources)

Renewable energy is becoming so cheap the US will meet Paris commitments even if Trump withdraws


Research analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that renewable energy like solar and wind power are hurtling towards a level of ubiquity where not even politics can hinder them. Renewable energy is simply becoming the cheapest option, fast. Basic economics, the analysts say, suggest that the US will exceed its commitments in the Paris agreement regardless of whether or not president Donald Trump withdraws, as he’s stated he will.

“We project that by 2020, renewables will be the cheapest form of new-power generation across the globe,” with the exception of a few countries in Southeast Asia, the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report published Thursday.

“By our forecasts, in most cases favorable renewables economics rather than government policy will be the primary driver of changes to utilities’ carbon emissions levels,” they wrote. “For example, notwithstanding president Trump’s stated intention to withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord, we expect the US to exceed the Paris commitment of a 26-28% reduction in its 2005-level carbon emissions by 2020.”

Globally, the price of solar panels has fallen 50% between 2016 and 2017, they write. And in countries with favorable wind conditions, the costs associated with wind power “can be as low as one-half to one-third that of coal- or natural gas-fired power plants.” Innovations in wind-turbine design are allowing for ever-longer wind blades; that boost in efficiency will also increase power output from the wind sector, according to Morgan Stanley.

Even in Australia, where the political climate is hostile to renewables, Morgan Stanley sees hope in the slightly longer-term: “In Australia, we anticipate that by 2020, renewables will provide ~28% of grid-supplied energy, including over 60% in South Australia.”

https://qz.com/1024520/renewable-energy-is-becoming-so-cheap-the-us-will-meet-paris-commitments-even-if-trump-withdraws/

Gratuitous name drop: I'm having drinks this weekend with the finance director for the Anschutz Wind River project ($5B / 1,000 turbine project in WY) - he also used to be the VP of investment banking for Morgan Stanley’s global power and utilities group. If I ask, I know he'll give me his completely honest thoughts on whether current ~$45/bbl oil (or better yet the $3/MMBtu NatGas) prices have any bearing on their strategy or if they're just doing their own thing - will advise in a few days.

[AnthonyS]

There could be a million years worth of oil under the ocean but it does nothing if it costs $100 a barrel to extract. Right now you can extract Brent in Northern Kurdistan for $8 a barrel so why isn't the current price $8 a barrel? Because there is a lot more to the oil business than how much of it is in the ground.

I'm probably aware of that. And technology continues to increase reserves and drive down costs. The fact remains that all of the technological hurdles to alternative energy are yet to be resolved and conventional energy is more anundant and getting cheaper everyday. Like I said remove greed and taxation and conventional energy has no competition.

[Broncojohnny]

Well I'm absolutely freaking positive. I'd tell you what I'm doing right now but we have a non disclosure agreement with this client. Running out of oil is a BS myth used to scare people and drive up prices. Offshore isn't even hardly explored much less developed. Electric cars probably are the future but it isn't because of some dire need.

There could be a million years worth of oil under the ocean but it does nothing if it costs $100 a barrel to extract. Right now you can extract Brent in Northern Kurdistan for $8 a barrel so why isn't the current price $8 a barrel? Because there is a lot more to the oil business than how much of it is in the ground.

[AnthonyS]

I am not sure if this is true. Strychnine can certainly weigh in, as he is the most educated here, but I have read a few analytical reports that say when the off shore wells start to drop in production that the price will go back up because those wells produce a lot of crude (30% of global supply) and they are not feasible to replace at current pricing because they are very capital intensive and take a lot of lead time.

Well I'm absolutely freaking positive. I'd tell you what I'm doing right now but we have a non disclosure agreement with this client. Running out of oil is a BS myth used to scare people and drive up prices. Offshore isn't even hardly explored much less developed. Electric cars probably are the future but it isn't because of some dire need.

[Broncojohnny]

Gas prices aren't going up long term unless it's driven by greed and profit taking (which is always the real cause). Gasoline is cheap especially if you strip away taxes and profit speculating. We can literally have as much as we want and cheaply. And my new pos ram truck has a range of at least 400 miles and isn't sitting on a battery pack that once it catches on fire can't be put out until all the chemical energy is consumed.

I am not sure if this is true. Strychnine can certainly weigh in, as he is the most educated here, but I have read a few analytical reports that say when the off shore wells start to drop in production that the price will go back up because those wells produce a lot of crude (30% of global supply) and they are not feasible to replace at current pricing because they are very capital intensive and take a lot of lead time.

[AnthonyS]

Gas prices aren't going up long term unless it's driven by greed and profit taking (which is always the real cause). Gasoline is cheap especially if you strip away taxes and profit speculating. We can literally have as much as we want and cheaply. And my new pos ram truck has a range of at least 400 miles and isn't sitting on a battery pack that once it catches on fire can't be put out until all the chemical energy is consumed.

[svauto-erotic855]

So I guess the magnets are what make the car so heavy...

No, that is silly. It is what saves about 50% of the electricity as used by an old style electric motor. They are not very big.

[jw33]

So I guess the magnets are what make the car so heavy...

[svauto-erotic855]

So the the Tesla model S uses a permanent magnet D.C. motor?

That is the technology that allows them to vary the speed.

[jw33]

So the the Tesla model S uses a permanent magnet D.C. motor?

[svauto-erotic855]

Firefly was never about mars you dumbass, the target was small satellites at low cost. The spirit airlines of space That's why you are full of shit (among an ever growing list of reasons now).

Prove to me that the tolerances, materials and design are the same. Oh wait....you still owe me proof of the never ending oil well...

I never made the claim that Firefly was trying to explore the solar system. What I said if you will take the time to re-read what I wrote is that Firefly copied a design that was developed by NASA to be used by NASA for exploring the solar system and the first stop that NASA had in mind was Mars.

Hi-dollar pool pumps use permanent magnet variable speed DC motors that are controlled by PWM and even run at the same high voltage that a car does. The comercial 30-500 horsepower ones used for water features are made exactly the same as a motor in a car. The lower powered ones are made the same way but cost is more of a factor for the smaller ones so I am sure that they weigh in less per horsepower then the ones used in a car. The exact manufacturing specs are information that no one outside of the company that manufacturers them will have access to.

I never found the article about the shield rock formation oil well that got drilled simply because no online records for the magazine the article was written in went back that far. The next time I move I am sure that I will find it. In the mean time you can read all about shield rock formation wells to your hearts content. It was big news when I read about it but it is old hat now.

[Ruffdaddy]

The motors I am referring to are THE EXACT SAME DESIGN AND MADE FROM THE EXACT SAME MATERIALS USING THE EXACT SAME CONSTRUCTION TECHNIQUES as the ones used in car, they are just smaller. You simply know nothing about them to be able to say that I am mistaken. I am not talking about conventional motors.

My information on the rockets came directly from NASA. Fireflys design was a copy of one designed by NASA to lower the cost so we could go to Mars. We nevreer made that trip for the reasons I mentioned. I stick with every statement that I make.

Firefly was never about mars you dumbass, the target was small satellites at low cost. The spirit airlines of space That's why you are full of shit (among an ever growing list of reasons now).

Prove to me that the tolerances, materials and design are the same. Oh wait....you still owe me proof of the never ending oil well...

[Gasser64]

Do you know how expensive those high voltage batteries are? I have never priced a Tesla battery but I know an S class hybrid battery is $18,000 and a Smart electric battery is $28,000. But at least they don't have to replace spark plugs and O2 sensors.

I'd love to see that comparison. All those ice repairs and maintenance, are definitely going to be a hell of a lot more than they ever would be on an electric. With the one exception of the battery. Then you can throw in gasoline, vs electricity. Electricity coming out to roughly the same as paying a dollar per gallon of gas. If I had to hazard some kind of guess, over a 10 year period I'd guess that the electric ends up costing something like 30-40% less than the ice car.