And there was much rejoicing in the land.... Gas Prices

[BP]

i do not think 20 dollars a barrel is out of the question from what i am hearing.

Especially since Iran jumped into the game over the weekend. An extra million barrels a day should help keep the prices down.

[Sean88gt]

Stockpile Raptor's and travel trailers. In 20 years you will double your money.

I recently went long on 2500 RV parking spots with hookups.

[Strychnine]

EDIT: I was multitasking and misread the question, but I'll leave my response. For some reason I thought you were just looking for energy based stuff.




There are funds out there that are energy focused that you could look at, but IMO it's all a shitshow right now. Slow99 will probably tell me I'm wrong, just because
This is not an endorsement, recommendation, or anything like that; just showing you what kind of stuff is out there.

Here's an example:
Downstream tends to be more insulated than upstream. There's a fund out there that's refining focused: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CRAK It's made up of Phillips, Marathon, Valero, etc, etc. It's basically betting on the crack spread, which is the delta between crude and refined goods.




But keep in mind that with gasoline supplies going up (like right now) the spread is falling and will keep falling.

With some other index funds you can invest in the E&P sector (EPX): https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/Index/Overview/EPX and the oil services sector (OSX): https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/Index/Overview/OSX


Again, just an FYI. With these you'll have to guess the bottom or make it a long play and wait it out.

[Strychnine]

Another one bites the dust

10th Largest US Frac Company Sells Fleet For 38 Cents On The Dollar, Exits US Market

Until Tuesday, Canada-based Trican Well Services was the tenth largest pressure pumping company in the US by frac horsepower. On Tuesday, the company announced a deal had been reached to sell their US frac fleet to Keane Group, a privately-held, U.S. based well completion services company. The deal marks Trican's exit from the US market.

Under the agreement, Keane will acquire the majority of Trican’s U.S. assets, including equipment, key employees and its engineering capabilities.

The deal has been expected, and we previously reported that it was coming, but the price had not been known until today's announcement. The total consideration paid by Keane amounts to $247mm, which is comprised of $200mm in cash plus a 10% minority stake in Keane plus 20% participation above certain thresholds if Keane has a liquidity event (i.e. a sale or IPO)

Trican has 16 frac spreads (645,000 horsepower) in the US. But only 6 of Trican's 16 US spreads are currently active - the rest have been parked due to the downturn. In severe downturns such as the one we are in, fair market value for frac equipment can move south of build cost fast. This deal provides an important marker for what pressure pumping equipment is worth.

The purchase price implies about $380,000 per 1,000 horsepower, a standard unit measure of pressure pumping equipment. Although new frac horsepower construction has ground to a halt, the build cost (or replacement value) was about $1mm per 1,000 horsepower during the shale-driven upcycle. This is likely close to what Trican originally spent to build these assets. Thus, this deal implies an exit from the US frac market at about 38 cents on the dollar.

Importantly, this may be the high end of the range for 2nd hand frac equipment in the current market for several reasons:

• Trican has some contract coverage that is attractive to Keane. 5 of of the 6 working crews are committed to Q2 2016, the other is working in the Marcellus spot market. And 4 of the 6 crews are committed to 2017.
• A desirable footprint across key US basins and proprietary technology as well as new service lines including cementing, coiled-tubing, nitrogen pumping, and acidizing capabilities
• Because Trican is substantially exiting its US businesses, its not just the pumps Keane is getting. Some support assets will likely move along with the trucks. Also, Keane gets a trained staff. All of these "extras" contributes to the value Keane gets above the raw horespower in this transaction, meaning that if the pumps were isolated, the deal value might have actually been even lower for the frac equipment.
• And finally, Trican is one of the first large sellers and Keane is one of the few established frac companies that was in the market to buy assets. Some of the other large players are vertically integrated and aren't interested in buying 3rd party fleets even at fire sale prices because they build their own in house...

If the deal is completed as expected by mid-March 2016, Keane will move into the top ten US frac companies in terms of fleet size with nearly 1mm horsepower under management.

[snacksnack]

ouch

[Broncojohnny]

EDIT: I was multitasking and misread the question, but I'll leave my response. For some reason I thought you were just looking for energy based stuff.




There are funds out there that are energy focused that you could look at, but IMO it's all a shitshow right now. Slow99 will probably tell me I'm wrong, just because
This is not an endorsement, recommendation, or anything like that; just showing you what kind of stuff is out there.

Here's an example:
Downstream tends to be more insulated than upstream. There's a fund out there that's refining focused: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CRAK It's made up of Phillips, Marathon, Valero, etc, etc. It's basically betting on the crack spread, which is the delta between crude and refined goods.




But keep in mind that with gasoline supplies going up (like right now) the spread is falling and will keep falling.

With some other index funds you can invest in the E&P sector (EPX): https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/Index/Overview/EPX and the oil services sector (OSX): https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/Index/Overview/OSX


Again, just an FYI. With these you'll have to guess the bottom or make it a long play and wait it out.

If you want to play the "wait it out" game the best thing to do is focus on companies with low debt and just buy a few shares here and there. Don't try to pick the bottom because you will miss it.

[Strychnine]

If you want to play the "wait it out" game the best thing to do is focus on companies with low debt and just buy a few shares here and there. Don't try to pick the bottom because you will miss it.

Agreed. I'm not betting on shit.
BTW, after you posted about NOV last week multiple articles were written about them being one of the "good bets."


I do really wish I had a shitload of free cash right now, there are deals to be had (keyword: shitload). A grad school friend of mine is "heir to the throne" of a publicly traded E&P ($50MM market cap now, $140MM a year ago) and we have kicked around the idea of doing our own thing. His dad's company sold the first land assets ($130MM value last year, sold for $55MM a few months ago) to another friend of mine who is CEO of a startup E&P this year ... *sigh*

I'm gonna lose my ass one day. LOL

[slow99]

... is "heir to the throne" of a publicly traded E&P ($50MM market cap now, $140MM a year ago)

Jesus, is it still listed or pink sheets now?

[Strychnine]

Jesus, is it still listed or pink sheets now?

LOL, they're not doing too hot right now

Still listed at $0.60... better than Key Energy!

[slow99]

LOL, they're not doing too hot right now

Still listed at $0.60... better than Key Energy!

Ha, well same market cap. I guess it's at least the beneficiary of a lower float.

[93LXHORSE]

I don't bet on anything... but I am buying more shares than ever in my indexed Fidelity funds... and I am no expert either... I just spend a lot of time on the phone with them learning what I can.

I've seen my price per share drop from 15.30 down to 13.90 and managed to buy 200 bucks, 300 bucks or so every 4 or 5 days for the last 3 weeks during this downturn... in the hopes the DCA method will pay off in the long run. I'll keep doing it as long as I can stand it without cutting into my safety savings.

So far my side of the business is still doing well... my client is Oceaneering, and their client is Shell. And Shell always has a need for maintenance and inspection work on all their assets here in the Gulf. And this boat has a crane that is extremely important, which so far has made me extremely important, so far. So I remain grateful.

[slow99]

and managed to buy 200 bucks, 300 bucks or so every 4 or 5 days for the last 3 weeks during this downturn... in the hopes the DCA method will pay off in the long run.

At $200-$300 a trade just wait and buy larger lots - the commissions will eat you alive at that level.

[93LXHORSE]

Oh I don't have to pay any fees..... no way I'd do that!

[Strychnine]

I know I said I'd stop but rig count dropped 48 this week.
-31 Oil
-17 Gas

Lmao. What a shitshow.

Down to 571 now.

[mstng86]

So just a recap. What was the rig count 18 months ago?