And there was much rejoicing in the land.... Gas Prices

[zachary]

Or the office folks who took 10-20% paycuts

<-----here, 10%

Being on the exploration side is interesting in all of this. We see the service company numbers drop first. Our engineers call and we see service prices are down 20-40% now depending on what it is. We worry about our jobs just like everyone else. Being an exploration geologist, we shift our focus to larger targets with more reserves to make up for the price cut, does not mean we will get the chance to drill these targets though.

Working with a small E&P(private money) is all about monthly cash flow. When times are good everyone gets the disbursement and the money they made, when times are bad we watch the bottom dollar. At what point will our overhead to operate and pay 15 employees not be able to be covered by our money in from production. Since payments run behind we are still getting 60$ per barrel at the moment. We are still in the positive cashflow, but there are others who are not. No matter what someone says in this business if the $30's get hit, companies will not survive. We took salary cuts(out of our pocket), cut back subscription costs(out of another companies pocket), cut back on field work(loss of jobs), cut pay to our field guys(less money in their pockets) and still hope to make it by. We are a small company and our cuts have effected 50+ people and the money they put back into the economy.

[Denny]

We've been taking hourly cuts... the ones still on rig sites, that is.

[KBScobravert]

We've been taking hourly cuts... the ones still on rig sites, that is.

My crew came to the yard 5 days before the end of the rotation. Worked those days in the yard and I am on days off until next Wednesday or Thursday. Supposedly we have a contract in Oklahoma but not sure how long it will take until we are back in the yard again. Yard time sucks especially when we start and stop our shift in the middle of the week. Not even getting 40 hours a week for 2 out of 3 weeks our 14 day rotation stretches across.

[Ruffdaddy]

How many do y'all predict tomorrow?

52 is my WAG.

[Strychnine]

How many do y'all predict tomorrow?

52 is my WAG.

WTI nearly touched $41 yesterday (low was either $42.08 or $42.15, cant remember) and the storage situation will get boned in the next few months. Rig count could drop 200 tomorrow and production would still rise next week.

Combine that with the news of sanctions possibly being lifted off of Iran which would allow more oil into the market, Saudi still saying they have no plans to cut, the fact that some of the US companies out there are choosing between production or death in this market...

Prior counts, most recent to further back were:
-67
-75
-43
-48
-98
-87
-90
-43
-74
-60
That's 68.5 per week in 2015.

I'm gonna take the average for tomorrow, so -69.


I'll make sure to post up here as soon as the report is released.



Rig count since 2010




Domestic crude 4 week moving average over the same time. The moving average rounds the peaks a bit, but there's still an upward trend...

[Ruffdaddy]

No maths allowed!

What's it like in sales during this drop?

In developmwnt, we still design and build, we just have to be more frugal with what we blow money on prototype wise. We stop rushing things and push for perfection on the first build.

[Strychnine]

BTW, today good ol' T. Boone predicted that oil will get back to $80-90 in the next 12-18 months.
He also predicted that ExxonMobil would look at acquiring Anadarko or Pioneer to boost their output.



LMFAO. It's all a shitshow right now... but I am actually trying to plan a path into an E&P in the next few years. This shit is so fun and fascinating at the same time. Steady and stable just seems boring as hell.

[Strychnine]

No maths allowed!

What's it like in sales during this drop?

In developmwnt, we still design and build, we just have to be more frugal with what we blow money on prototype wise. We stop rushing things and push for perfection on the first build.

LOL. My gut guess was -58, but then maths...

So right now, on the tech sales side into the upstream (read: drilling and wellhead) it's shit. No one's building rigs domestically. Even drilling contractors that (supposedly) had 10 year contracts just 6 months ago have delayed new builds 12 months to see what happens. But I know that big international rig builders are still going forward with new equipment overseas (middle east)

Industry wide there have been price-cut requests (10-25%) from equipment builders, signed by CEOs and presidents, sent to all vendors. It's a mess, but the world can't survive without energy.

My guess is that it stays down for at least 12 more months before turning up. In that time older equipment (older mechanical rigs, SCR rigs, and other things that were first to get stacked in this downturn) will get scrapped or sold internationallly, and in 18-24 months there will be a slow turn into a new build cycle with more VFD rigs going to the field. Given the timing of that, the new rigs will be Tier 4 Final emissions compliant which necessarily drives better maintenance, integration, efficiency, etc... it will get better, just not in the next year.

[Trip McNeely]

LMFAO. It's all a shitshow right now... but I am actually trying to plan a path into an E&P in the next few years. This shit is so fun and fascinating at the same time. Steady and stable just seems boring as hell.

What's your background, What are you looking for? We're hiring some Sr. Level Engineering positions. You can PM me if you want.

[Sean88gt]

BTW, today good ol' T. Boone predicted that oil will get back to $80-90 in the next 12-18 months.
He also predicted that ExxonMobil would look at acquiring Anadarko or Pioneer to boost their output.



LMFAO. It's all a shitshow right now... but I am actually trying to plan a path into an E&P in the next few years. This shit is so fun and fascinating at the same time. Steady and stable just seems boring as hell.

Fuck Pickens, he's trying to ruin my broke dick party.

[Strychnine]

What's your background, What are you looking for? We're hiring some Sr. Level Engineering positions. You can PM me if you want.

I don't see myself going back into engineering (got burnt out) - will PM in a bit.

[Cooter]

we're getting down around where we were when I got laid off... nobody was buying rigs at the time for some strange reason! LOL

I've had a good time running ancillary to these drilling and pipeline crews the past 5yrs. I probably should have kept pushing full throttle the past 7-9 months, but I was just flat burnt out and doing some spring cleaning before I start my empire...

I hope everybody lands on their feet and is steeled up and rested when we catch the next wave

[Ruffdaddy]

LOL. My gut guess was -58, but then maths...

So right now, on the tech sales side into the upstream (read: drilling and wellhead) it's shit. No one's building rigs domestically. Even drilling contractors that (supposedly) had 10 year contracts just 6 months ago have delayed new builds 12 months to see what happens. But I know that big international rig builders are still going forward with new equipment overseas (middle east)

Industry wide there have been price-cut requests (10-25%) from equipment builders, signed by CEOs and presidents, sent to all vendors. It's a mess, but the world can't survive without energy.

My guess is that it stays down for at least 12 more months before turning up. In that time older equipment (older mechanical rigs, SCR rigs, and other things that were first to get stacked in this downturn) will get scrapped or sold internationallly, and in 18-24 months there will be a slow turn into a new build cycle with more VFD rigs going to the field. Given the timing of that, the new rigs will be Tier 4 Final emissions compliant which necessarily drives better maintenance, integration, efficiency, etc... it will get better, just not in the next year.

So you only deal with upstream? I thought you were all three sectors for some reason.

And I've been saying this is gonna suck until at least '16 for awhile now. I can't imagine it ever comes back to what it was in north america 8 months ago without a serious political conflict or war. Other countries are starting to develop their shale fields and I can't see north America swinging back to almost 2K rigs for a very long time.

I hope I'm wrong.

BTW, today good ol' T. Boone predicted that oil will get back to $80-90 in the next 12-18 months.
He also predicted that ExxonMobil would look at acquiring Anadarko or Pioneer to boost their output.



LMFAO. It's all a shitshow right now... but I am actually trying to plan a path into an E&P in the next few years. This shit is so fun and fascinating at the same time. Steady and stable just seems boring as hell.

I rarely take any analyst prediction seriously. Nobody knows...anyone who claims to is either a liar or too stupid to know better.

When you say E&P...what type of role are you looking? That's a pretty broad target.

[slow99]

I rarely take any analyst prediction seriously. Nobody knows...anyone who claims to is either a liar or too stupid to know better.

If you're right 60% of the time, you're among the elite.

[CexMashean]

I just want to know.. . . .when do we get close to $1/gal gas?