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And there was much rejoicing in the land.... Gas Prices

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  • A few things...


    Cool model of that giant Sakhalin Island rig a few pages ago






    7 slides from Schlumberger's CEO

    E&P Spending Down 10-15% This Year, North America Recovery Will Be Late & Shallow


    NAM Oil Supply Capacity Growing, Rest Of World Flat


    We Are Not In A Real Global Overcapacity Situation


    The Global Oil Market Is Heading For A Tightening, Brent Prices Could Increase In 2H15


    The Industry's Challenges Are Structural In Nature


    Reducing Cost Per Barrel Has Become The Key Priority In O&G


    New Well Drilling Set To Grow In Lower Drilling-Intensity Markets




    Two more quotes from T. Boone:
    "I think you could very well be at $100 a barrel by the end of 2016"
    "The Republicans will win in 2016,"


    Estimates are that Iran has somwhere between 7 million and 35 million barrels of oil stockpiled ready to dump on the market if sanctions are lifted.
    North America continues to put a million barrels a day of 'excess' oil into storage. Iran may add, abruptly, an additional 0.8 million barrels of additional oil into the system. If prices are struggling with the North American "excess", what will prices do when the system tries to accommodate an added quantity of a similar magnitude?

    The perspective that I visualize is similar to the panic that ensues when I see the commode overflowing.

    - William Edwards, President at Edwards Energy Consultants
    "US government officials told Bloomberg that it would take three to six months following an end-of-June deadline on a final deal for the Iranian oil to hit the global market. The talks this week center on reaching an agreement on a framework for the deal by the end of March. "




    And a trajectory of Al's shitliner headed to port



    Bloomberg Intelligence analyzed 10 years of maintenance-season data and found that if 2015 follows an average year of refinery maintenance, the current glut should never be more than a nuisance. But if 2015 matches up with the worst period in a decade, there will be trouble in the two biggest storage regions: Cushing, Oklahoma, and the U.S. Gulf Coast.



    Worth noting: the analysis above assumes oil production is unchanged. So far, that hasn't been the case. Despite all of the pressures on U.S. oil, production continues to increase unchecked. And the storage tanks keep filling.

    Comment


    • Wait until this knife hits the floor and pick it up!!!

      I can see T Boone's quote as reality, but I'm not sure of his time frame.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Denny View Post
        Wait until this knife hits the floor and pick it up!!!
        WTI broke $49 today!

        Comment


        • I made a bet with my boss last week taking WTI to hit $55 before $35. We'll see.
          Originally posted by davbrucas
          I want to like Slow99 since people I know say he's a good guy, but just about everything he posts is condescending and passive aggressive.

          Most people I talk to have nothing but good things to say about you, but you sure come across as a condescending prick. Do you have an inferiority complex you've attempted to overcome through overachievement? Or were you fondled as a child?

          You and slow99 should date. You both have passive aggressiveness down pat.

          Comment


          • I feel like a fucking idiot... I don't understand any of this

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Unicorn Jeff View Post
              I feel like a fucking idiot... I don't understand any of this
              Dont feel like the Lone Ranger, Tonto.
              "If I asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses." - Henry Ford

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Unicorn Jeff View Post
                I feel like a fucking idiot... I don't understand any of this
                In a nutshell, look at the components that you do know about oil. You drill to get it and you refine it. In between drilling and refining is transportation of crude and storage of crude. The same is true for after it is refined.

                Currently, we have surplus crude oil because of our improved ability to drill here in the states coupled with the Saudis turning up (not slowing down) their production. Our crude storage reservoirs are filling up approaching the max capacity of storage. This surplus is driving the price of oil down which means lower profits (or none in some cases) for those drilling for oil. In true supply/demand fashion, some companies are laying down rigs because they can't make money. The problem is the supply is still growing faster than the demand which will mean a bigger surplus and should mean even lower prices. The Saudis would rather lose money right now to show us they control the oil market and say they can do that for 2 plus years easily.

                The US doesn't have the ability to refine it fast enough in addition to the decline in demand. It is only effecting the price at the pump though because the amount refined is closer to what is being used. The rest of the items posted are thoughts and speculations about how low oil will go, when it will rebound, etc.

                I love all this information here and look forward to reading it each time it's updated. I'm probably over simplifying the summary above, but I was trying to be brief.

                Comment


                • Don't forget that US laws prevent us from exporting crude. That makes storage concerns much greater. We are sanctioning ourselves.

                  Comment


                  • Fucking price of humvees are going back up because of this shit!
                    NO JUSTICE! NO PEACE!
                    sigpic

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Magnus View Post
                      Fucking price of humvees are going back up because of this shit!
                      NO JUSTICE! NO PEACE!
                      Can't trust the police. How in the hell does this go up? Can we get a list of speculators?

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by juiceweezl View Post
                        In a nutshell, look at the components that you do know about oil. You drill to get it and you refine it. In between drilling and refining is transportation of crude and storage of crude. The same is true for after it is refined.

                        Currently, we have surplus crude oil because of our improved ability to drill here in the states coupled with the Saudis turning up (not slowing down) their production. Our crude storage reservoirs are filling up approaching the max capacity of storage. This surplus is driving the price of oil down which means lower profits (or none in some cases) for those drilling for oil. In true supply/demand fashion, some companies are laying down rigs because they can't make money. The problem is the supply is still growing faster than the demand which will mean a bigger surplus and should mean even lower prices. The Saudis would rather lose money right now to show us they control the oil market and say they can do that for 2 plus years easily.

                        The US doesn't have the ability to refine it fast enough in addition to the decline in demand. It is only effecting the price at the pump though because the amount refined is closer to what is being used. The rest of the items posted are thoughts and speculations about how low oil will go, when it will rebound, etc.

                        I love all this information here and look forward to reading it each time it's updated. I'm probably over simplifying the summary above, but I was trying to be brief.
                        I apologize if I completely missed the point... I'm not 100% with it today.

                        So, we (The USA) have been going balls deep in drilling for crude but we can't refine it fast enough, and Saudi is beating us to the punch?

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Unicorn Jeff View Post
                          I apologize if I completely missed the point... I'm not 100% with it today.

                          So, we (The USA) have been going balls deep in drilling for crude but we can't refine it fast enough, and Saudi is beating us to the punch?
                          We've gotten a shit ton better at obtaining crude and can drill more now than ever, but we don't have the need. The Saudis don't refine, just provide crude. Normal business practice is to stop producing when the sell price becomes a loss, but the Saudis aren't doing that. Thus the surplus/glut and plummeting oil prices.

                          Imagine if Carless Chris resurfaced and started selling used cars for $5000 each despite the fact that Whiteboy could get $10K each for them. Now let's pretend the cars are exactly the same, and both Chris and Whiteboy are paying $7500 for the cars. Chris should stop selling cars altogether or raise his price, but he continues to sell them for $5K despite a $7500 cost. Whiteboy is stuck with a bunch of cars that no one wants. He doesn't want to sell them for $5K because he loses money. In the oil situation, Saudi is Carless Chris flooding the market with cheap oil despite losing money.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by juiceweezl
                            In the oil situation, Saudi is Carless Chris flooding the market with cheap oil despite losing money.
                            They aren't losing money... They just aren't making as much as they were.


                            Lmao at the CC / whiteboy allegory.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Unicorn Jeff View Post
                              I apologize if I completely missed the point... I'm not 100% with it today.

                              So, we (The USA) have been going balls deep in drilling for crude but we can't refine it fast enough, and Saudi is beating us to the punch?
                              Yes and no? We've got an overabundance of capacity on the drilling side, but not enough capacity on the refining side. Traditionally as there became an imbalance in supply and demand Saudi Arabia has cut production to keep costs up, this time they haven't done that, relying on the US to try to cut production. The problem with that is even with significantly slowed exploration and completion the capacity to pump is still going up.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Strychnine View Post
                                They aren't losing money... They just aren't making as much as they were.


                                Lmao at the CC / whiteboy allegory.
                                haha Trying to exaggerate a little to get the point across, and yes I was laughing too at that one.

                                Comment

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