DFWMustangs stock market game 4 starts 3/25/2014

[quikag]

I bought some mid-stream (KMI/WPZ) and added to my positions through the end of the year as it went down. Yeah....not so smart. It's down so much now, I'll just hold it forever at this point.

It wasn't a huge amount, but still enough to be quite annoying....

Buying some property so I sold off some of my bond funds and two blue chips (T and PG) for extra cash yesterday. Guess that wasn't a bad idea as they are both down today. Bond fund will go up probably, but I needed the cash. Oh well.

[Captain Crawfish]

I guess you better sell everything then....

Full short since May 15

[Ruffdaddy]

Everytime i hear people talk about investing i just feel like its a bunch of posers that really dont know much about money

Maybe thats because i have friends investing in dumb shit companies while they still have loads of credit card and student loan debt.

Ill admit I dont know how to work the stock market which is why i dont invest there. Most of my "investments" are on myself.

So who here actually knows what theyre doing...and who just wants to sound like a movie?

[Strychnine]

So who here actually knows what theyre doing

I saw Wolf Of Wall Street so I think I'm doing pretty well in terms of knowledge base.

[mstng86]

I saw Wolf Of Wall Street so I think I'm doing pretty well in terms of knowledge base.

[The King]

I saw Wolf Of Wall Street so I think I'm doing pretty well in terms of knowledge base.

I just buy whatever Cramer recommends

[quikag]

Everytime i hear people talk about investing i just feel like its a bunch of posers that really dont know much about money

Maybe thats because i have friends investing in dumb shit companies while they still have loads of credit card and student loan debt.

Ill admit I dont know how to work the stock market which is why i dont invest there. Most of my "investments" are on myself.

So who here actually knows what theyre doing...and who just wants to sound like a movie?

This is the truth, even with the experts. I kid you not, I did taxes at an accounting firm a long while back and there was a big radio personality who talked finance/stocks, etc. and we did his tax return. I don't remember his name, but he was a pretty big guy at the time. Get this, he had a multi-million dollar capital loss carry forward on his taxes. Meaning, he had loss his ass on the very stock betting he talked about on the radio all the time.

I thought that was pretty damn funny and really shed light on the actual capabilities of most people who call themselves "experts." I hate that word. There really is no such thing honestly. Just people who think they are.

So, I know a little bit and it's my background and my job (CFO), but I still don't know crap and certainly can't invest for crap personally. I'm more of a contrarian fundamentals/value type investor, but you just can't bet against market sentiment even if it's insane and expect to do well especially in the short term. Plus, fundamentals aren't always what they purport to be either and I've learned that the hard way too.

Rambling now and I'm probably not even making sense...haha...damn stock market.

[Broncojohnny]

The biggest problem I see with your statement is that you said you are a value investor and were concerned about the short term. Those two things don't really go together in my mind.

I think oil companies are the top value play out there right now but they won't recover for years.

As to Ruffdaddy's post, you really shouldn't listen to anyone out there, that is being lazy. The lazy way to invest is to just buy an S&P index fund.

[slow99]

So who here actually knows what theyre doing...

Nobody.

[1carcrazyguy]

I think oil companies are the top value play out there right now but they won't recover for years.

The lazy way to invest is to just buy an S&P index fund.

Just make sure not to pick an oil company that goes belly up in all of this.

As for the S&P index fund. It is a good way to diversify a portfolio but I would not pour everything into it. Just added the SPY to my account on this last dip.

[quikag]

The biggest problem I see with your statement is that you said you are a value investor and were concerned about the short term. Those two things don't really go together in my mind.

I think oil companies are the top value play out there right now but they won't recover for years.

As to Ruffdaddy's post, you really shouldn't listen to anyone out there, that is being lazy. The lazy way to invest is to just buy an S&P index fund.

I didn't say I was concerned at least in view of my overall plan. Short term volatility doesn't cause me to adjust my portfolio, maybe even to a fault. I just meant sentiment can jack up value investing especially in the short term.

I want to add to my O&G positions but not now. Waiting for some things to settle out. Talked to an employee at Goldman earlier today and they said they expect to see some companies have serious trouble and companies not honoring contracts etc. That needs to play out a bit before they think it's time to add.

[Captain Crawfish]

The shitstorm is just getting started!

[Strychnine]

Talked to an employee at Goldman earlier today and they said they expect to see some companies have serious trouble and companies not honoring contracts etc.

Just a few examples of how messed up some of them are/were - and we all know there will be more just like this

The four biggest U.S. banks -- Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. -- have set aside at least $2.5 billion combined to cover souring energy loans and have said they’ll add to that if prices stay low

Dune went belly up owing $144.2 million. Its assets sold for $20 million. “The reality is setting in as prices remain lower for longer,” said Buddy Clark, a partner with Haynes and Boone in Houston, which represented Dune Energy in bankruptcy.

In May, American Eagle Energy Corp. filed for bankruptcy with debts of $215 million. Its properties sold for $45 million in October.

(and WTI was near $60 when they filed)

BPZ Resources Inc. owed $275.2 million. Its assets fetched about $9 million.

Endeavour International Corp. went into bankruptcy owing $1.63 billion. The company sold some assets for $9.65 million and handed over the rest to lenders.

ERG Resources LLC opened an auction with a minimum bid of $250 million. Response? No takers.

Some local boys (Quicksilver Resources) went on the auction block today with $1.21 billion in assets and $2.35 billion in liabilities.

[quikag]

Yep, likely the tip of the iceberg. There will definitely be a substantial number of liquidations and consolidations in the sector. What a mess.

[Broncojohnny]

I didn't say I was concerned at least in view of my overall plan. Short term volatility doesn't cause me to adjust my portfolio, maybe even to a fault. I just meant sentiment can jack up value investing especially in the short term.

I want to add to my O&G positions but not now. Waiting for some things to settle out. Talked to an employee at Goldman earlier today and they said they expect to see some companies have serious trouble and companies not honoring contracts etc. That needs to play out a bit before they think it's time to add.

Understood, it sounds like we think alike as far as not adjusting anything. I am buying companies with low debt though, I don't ever think I can time the bottom.