Will there be another recession?

[Silverback]

it's not like most people buy 100 gallons a month.

I buy a little over 5 tanks a month at 22-23 gallons a fill up

But I'm a dfwmustangs balla so it doesn't effect me

[aggie97]

Not going to happen, we are almost to point where there is more money out there seeking to buy than there was before the crash. Any property that is of reasonable quality is usually snatched up at more than the loan amount, meaning the bank makes money on the deal.

yeah, but if the property couldn't make money at X dollars...it won't make money at X+1 Dollars either. If someone pays more, they are sort of stupid....but as I have found, having money doesn't include having brains!

[FreightTrain]

We ran 20,000 more trains in 2010 than we did in 2009. Also for the first 11 days of 2011 our business is up 20% from 2010 for the same time frame. All I can say is I made more money in 2010 than I ever have and it's not slowing down anytime soon. We have hired 200 new guys for my terminal in the last 3 months and plan to hire 200 more in 2011.

[Broncojohnny]

yeah, but if the property couldn't make money at X dollars...it won't make money at X+1 Dollars either. If someone pays more, they are sort of stupid....but as I have found, having money doesn't include having brains!

It just needs to make money at X minus the old owner's equity amount.

Commercial real estate is financed anyhere from 50-90% in the vast majority of cases. If the owner defaults and has $1 in the property then the bank may effectively have $.50-.90 in the property and sell it for that amount. There aren't many buildings that wouldn't make decent money at those kinds of discounts.

A while back, I bid on some vacant buildings at Highway 80 and Big Town in Mesquite. Anyone who lives over there can see them, they are on the SE corner and front the highway. I bet they cost $60-70 to build and were bank owned. We bid $18 psf on them with plans to put another $10 in them to finish them out. The people who won them got them for about $22 psf. If you can rent them out for $3 psf per year, the returns on that $22 are pretty good. Even better on the $18 I bid! At $70 psf that junk is a horrible horrible deal though, might as well put your money in a CD at the bank. And that is how the market with bank properties works, there will be a buyer come in at a decent price these days.

[aggie97]

It just needs to make money at X minus the old owner's equity amount.

Commercial real estate is financed anyhere from 50-90% in the vast majority of cases. If the owner defaults and has $1 in the property then the bank may effectively have $.50-.90 in the property and sell it for that amount. There aren't many buildings that wouldn't make decent money at those kinds of discounts.

A while back, I bid on some vacant buildings at Highway 80 and Big Town in Mesquite. Anyone who lives over there can see them, they are on the SE corner and front the highway. I bet they cost $60-70 to build and were bank owned. We bid $18 psf on them with plans to put another $10 in them to finish them out. The people who won them got them for about $22 psf. If you can rent them out for $3 psf per year, the returns on that $22 are pretty good. Even better on the $18 I bid! At $70 psf that junk is a horrible horrible deal though, might as well put your money in a CD at the bank. And that is how the market with bank properties works, there will be a buyer come in at a decent price these days.

I just want this one property to fail so we can bid on it. The bank has 100 cents in and owner paid 3x what he should have. I imagine the bank may forclose someday, and there will be a dumbass that pays 80 cents...and will later fail as he can't make the money either. Nature of this type of business all over the US since 1904!

[Captain Crawfish]

With population growing as well as the need for energy increasing the days of cheap oil are over. Its time to start converting over to CNG/LNG its cheaper cleaner and we have plenty of it. Its not only an issue of relying on our own resources but also an issue of national security. The current energy policy is a train wreck and has been for awhile.

[mr tinfoil hat]

And you base this on what? I base my opinion on actual data.

I base my info on facts too. Here's a couple of facts that are easily forgotten when the economy discussions come up.

1. We print money out of thin air.
2. No nation with a paper fiat currency has ever survived this amount of debt.
3. The numbers we're given about our current state of affairs are completely fabricated.

They can only plug the holes of a sinking ship for so long. We've had this discussion on the old board before. I hope you're correct and I'm dead wrong. I just don't see it that way though.

[Denny]

You can go on to add that the ONLY way we get away with all this printing is because the US dollar is the world's reserve currency and the basis of international trade (specifically oil). Once other countries stop using the dollar for this, it'll be worth shit, if not less.

China, Russia, India, Iran, France and soon to be South American countries are already making agreements to do so. The dollar is done, y'all.

Other currencies have been destroyed doing less than we've done. Remember the UK in 74-75? We're there.

[Denny]

With population growing as well as the need for energy increasing the days of cheap oil are over. Its time to start converting over to CNG/LNG its cheaper cleaner and we have plenty of it. Its not only an issue of relying on our own resources but also an issue of national security. The current energy policy is a train wreck and has been for awhile.

I think it's too little too late, bro. We use oil for a lot more than just fuel and lube. Look at the keyboard you typed that post on. Oil was one of the ingredients used to make that plastic. Fact is, a lot more than just energey will be hurt when this really fucks up.

[Mixedup]

Gas prices are on the rise again. Last time, people that live pay check to pay check started missing their mortgage and credit card payments due to the gas prices eating up their current budget. Will be interesting since the oil companies are gouging us once again, what kind of affect it will have on the economy.

Any thoughts on the affect?

Have You looked at the Margins that "BIG OIL" is making - Heck the Local, State and FED's make more per gallon than the Oil companies make ..... price increases we have now can now be attributed to our Gov/Obama - the dollar does not buy as much, and a very restrictive energy production policy, and a financial market of limited investment opportunities so more speculation in Oil ..... Grab your shorts - it is only going to get worse!

[gripenfelter]

Have You looked at the Margins that "BIG OIL" is making - Heck the Local, State and FED's make more per gallon than the Oil companies make ..... price increases we have now can now be attributed to our Gov/Obama - the dollar does not buy as much, and a very restrictive energy production policy, and a financial market of limited investment opportunities so more speculation in Oil ..... Grab your shorts - it is only going to get worse!

truths

[mikeb]

You can go on to add that the ONLY way we get away with all this printing is because the US dollar is the world's reserve currency and the basis of international trade (specifically oil). Once other countries stop using the dollar for this, it'll be worth shit, if not less.

China, Russia, India, Iran, France and soon to be South American countries are already making agreements to do so. The dollar is done, y'all.

Other currencies have been destroyed doing less than we've done. Remember the UK in 74-75? We're there.

THIS is my concern, regardless of what happens or does not happen with the price hikes in oil. At one time in the not-so-distant past, the dollar was treasured and coveted by the world. It was seen as a pillar of strength.

Now? it's on it's way to being more like the reichsmark, worthless and forgotten by the world. If that happens, so follows the U.S.

[talisman]

I'm not worried. I'll be fine.

[Denny]

THIS is my concern, regardless of what happens or does not happen with the price hikes in oil. At one time in the not-so-distant past, the dollar was treasured and coveted by the world. It was seen as a pillar of strength.

Now? it's on it's way to being more like the reichsmark, worthless and forgotten by the world. If that happens, so follows the U.S.

With the fall of the dollar, expect a domino effect with all other global currencies since their all fiat.

[Skidmark]

Texas average is more like 20k a year or more....times 2 for most households. Throw in a kid or two of driving age or in college and the family gas bill goes up signficantly. Put a 25% increase on the price of diesel and watch the cost of goods on ANY shelf to go up nearly the same amount due to transportation cost increases. then figure in the cost for plastics that use oil as a base or for manufacturing it and those prices go up.

Anyone who imagines that a 25% increase in the cost of ANYTHING is no big deal is a fucking moron! Add in the fact we ARE in a depression even though the Media preaches otherwise is further proof your average dumbass american is too fucking stupid to realize their ignorance.

ugh...we're fucked because too many people saw Idiocracy the movie as entertainment and not the actual documentary that it was.

What is lame is that last time the prices of goods went up due to increase in fuel, the never went back down when fuel went down.