Tweet
6 tons of space debris "deorbiting." The largest uncontrolled satellite crash since SkyLab in 1979
Object Description:
Type: UARS Satellite
Int'l Designation: 1991 063B
Launched: 12 SEP 1991 @ 23:11 UTC
Site: Deployed from Shuttle Discovery on 15 September 1991
Mission: Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite
Reentry Prediction:
Predicted Reentry Time: 23 SEP 2011 @ 20:36 UTC ± 20 hours
Because of the varying density of the upper atmosphere, they won't be able to tell where it is going to land until two hours before it plunges back to Earth.
"[The potential target is] a pretty wide area, 57 degrees north to 57 degrees south... that pretty much encompasses the entire populated world. I mean, there is a small percent that live above and below those latitudes, but the vast majority of the 7 billion people on the planet live within those latitudes,"
- Nicholas Johnson, NASA's chief orbital debris scientist
Ok, so any one person's chance is more like 1:21,000,000,000,000 (srsly)... But someone, somewhere... Damn that would be crazy
Object Description:
Type: UARS Satellite
Int'l Designation: 1991 063B
Launched: 12 SEP 1991 @ 23:11 UTC
Site: Deployed from Shuttle Discovery on 15 September 1991
Mission: Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite
Reentry Prediction:
Predicted Reentry Time: 23 SEP 2011 @ 20:36 UTC ± 20 hours
UARS satellite: Obama, Boehner likely safe
By Joel Achenbach
This just in: Washington will be spared when the NASA satellite UARS crashes to Earth. So will Manhattan. Indeed, the entire East Coast of the U.S. looks safe as I examine the projected crash map.
This isn’t class warfare, it’s just physics.
Although we don’t know where the dadgum thing is going to crash, and it could still hit any continent except Antarctica, there are very well-defined orbital tracks that show where it will be going in the final few days before the expected Friday-ish re-entry, spectacular fireballing and debris-spewing.
One trajectory, for example, shows it passing over Texas and close to Chicago. Europe is very much in the line of fire, with multiple trajectories that pass over that land mass.
The orbit is at an inclination of 57 degrees to the Equator, which means that UARS passes over points ranging from 57 degrees north latitude to 57 degrees south latitude. But it won’t literally pass over every spot on the planet between those latitudes. It traces a path that can now be constrained a great deal, and if you look at this map from the Aerospace Corporation you’ll see that it’s not going to hit the U.S. Capitol and disrupt the highly productive political process that is going to solve the fiscal conundrum and put Americans back to work.
The Aerospace Corporation map uses Air Force tracking data and feeds it through a software program to come up with an estimate. This afternoon the best estimate showed the tumbling satellite entering the atmosphere just west of South America at 4:36 p.m. EDT, and likely spraying debris across the Andes and perhaps the Amazon basin. But yesterday the map showed it crashing in the South Atlantic near South Africa, and my sources say that the next update (which may occur as I’m typing) will show a different location yet again.
This map shows the track of the satellite before the projected re-entry point (blue lines) and after the projected entry point (yellow lines). You’ll notice that the margin of error literally goes around the world several times.
In fact, just a 30-minute difference in the re-entry translates into the satellite hitting Europe instead of the western coast of South America.
The actual margin of error is even greater than depicted here – about plus-or-minus-20 hours as of Tuesday afternoon, while the map shows only plus-or-minus-6 hours. But I’m told by the AC people that they don’t have any track that takes it directly over the East Coast.
Remember: There’s a 1-in-3200 chance that it will strike a human being somewhere on the planet, according to NASA. That’s not the odds that it will strike YOU. Just some human. And there are 7 billion humans. See more from Jason Samenow.
By Joel Achenbach
This just in: Washington will be spared when the NASA satellite UARS crashes to Earth. So will Manhattan. Indeed, the entire East Coast of the U.S. looks safe as I examine the projected crash map.
This isn’t class warfare, it’s just physics.
Although we don’t know where the dadgum thing is going to crash, and it could still hit any continent except Antarctica, there are very well-defined orbital tracks that show where it will be going in the final few days before the expected Friday-ish re-entry, spectacular fireballing and debris-spewing.
One trajectory, for example, shows it passing over Texas and close to Chicago. Europe is very much in the line of fire, with multiple trajectories that pass over that land mass.
The orbit is at an inclination of 57 degrees to the Equator, which means that UARS passes over points ranging from 57 degrees north latitude to 57 degrees south latitude. But it won’t literally pass over every spot on the planet between those latitudes. It traces a path that can now be constrained a great deal, and if you look at this map from the Aerospace Corporation you’ll see that it’s not going to hit the U.S. Capitol and disrupt the highly productive political process that is going to solve the fiscal conundrum and put Americans back to work.
The Aerospace Corporation map uses Air Force tracking data and feeds it through a software program to come up with an estimate. This afternoon the best estimate showed the tumbling satellite entering the atmosphere just west of South America at 4:36 p.m. EDT, and likely spraying debris across the Andes and perhaps the Amazon basin. But yesterday the map showed it crashing in the South Atlantic near South Africa, and my sources say that the next update (which may occur as I’m typing) will show a different location yet again.
This map shows the track of the satellite before the projected re-entry point (blue lines) and after the projected entry point (yellow lines). You’ll notice that the margin of error literally goes around the world several times.
In fact, just a 30-minute difference in the re-entry translates into the satellite hitting Europe instead of the western coast of South America.
The actual margin of error is even greater than depicted here – about plus-or-minus-20 hours as of Tuesday afternoon, while the map shows only plus-or-minus-6 hours. But I’m told by the AC people that they don’t have any track that takes it directly over the East Coast.
Remember: There’s a 1-in-3200 chance that it will strike a human being somewhere on the planet, according to NASA. That’s not the odds that it will strike YOU. Just some human. And there are 7 billion humans. See more from Jason Samenow.
Because of the varying density of the upper atmosphere, they won't be able to tell where it is going to land until two hours before it plunges back to Earth.
"[The potential target is] a pretty wide area, 57 degrees north to 57 degrees south... that pretty much encompasses the entire populated world. I mean, there is a small percent that live above and below those latitudes, but the vast majority of the 7 billion people on the planet live within those latitudes,"
- Nicholas Johnson, NASA's chief orbital debris scientist
Ok, so any one person's chance is more like 1:21,000,000,000,000 (srsly)... But someone, somewhere... Damn that would be crazy
Comment