Some info from the Ukraine

[68RR]

Interesting comment posted...
Well Sirs, I have kind of a different take than y'all on this situation.
While the Russians may not have complete control of the air war, the UKR doesn't either. Many folks have pointed out that the Russian C2 is having difficulty at the operational level executing offensive operations, we haven't seen the Ukrainian's try to put together more than local area counter-attacks of limited range. The Ukrainians have done extremely well at defensive operations but they can't "win" by defense alone. They need to generate a very fast offensive operation that cuts very deep into one of the extended "pinchers" that the Russians are dangling out there. With their limited size, they will probably only get one shot at it.
If they are unable to do that, I think the conflict will become stagnant like it has been since 2014. The Russians will end up holding more terrain (rubble) than they had before and will just let the Ukrainian economy drag down.
If recent history is any guide, then the "West's" resolve will weaken over time. Methinks we will see the same situation we've had for the last 8 years. A stalemate.
The Russians can afford to wait. They'll find ways around the sanctions just like other countries (Iran) have. They can re-build their military, learn from their mistakes and try again.
It doesn't sound very positive but, I think that's how all this tremendous waste will turn out.

[Gasser64]

It doesn't sound very positive but, I think that's how all this tremendous waste will turn out.

The most positive thing will be russia ending this thing soon. Some smart people are saying there might be 3 weeks left. They're resolved not to be encircled by nato/EU/"west" in general. They've been trying to get a non-aggression treaty made up and ratified since 2004. Ain't happening, so now they've gotta fight. No choice, let it go long enough and sure as shit the west will start telling rusky what to do and where to go. He ain't havin' it. He said no, with his artillery.

[AnthonyS]

It is all definitely a huge waste of lives, money, time and other resources. The US taxpayer got screwed over again so corruption could profit. I like Putin, Zelensky and Bran Don all the same. They are all 3 horrible leaders and don’t care anything about the people they are supposed to represent.

To top it all off based on how many pols and Hollywierdos have been to the Ukraine recently, it’s clearly a lot safer than the US southern border and most of our blue cities.

[68RR]

The Russian Army Continuum:
In 2010, I stood and listened to Afghan villagers as they described what the Russian occupation was like for them in the 1980s. It was a horrific litany of the most vicious and cruel acts I'd ever heard of--all designed to terrorize the Afghan population into submission.
One man in his fifties related to me how some Russian troops arrived in helicopters one day. They murdered and raped their way through the village. They grabbed him and force-fed him rocks. Then they pinned him to the ground and took turns jumping on his stomach and boot stomping him. He very nearly died in the aftermath, and still suffered daily pain from that torture.
The Afghans I spoke to that day went on to tell me how the predations of the Russian troops were so terrible that the bulk of the surviving villagers made the decision to escape to Pakistan and try to make it to a refugee camp. It was the dead of winter. The Russians had taken all their food, much of their clothing--anything of value. The village began to move out in the snow and freezing weather--some of the people did not even have shoes. Many died on the long, terrible walk to the border.
Flying over the Eastern part of Afghanistan, the legacy and scars of the Russo-Afghan War were everywhere. Entire villages were carpet bombed and abandoned, their ruins visible from the air. On the ground, the ruined compounds gave mute testimony to the firepower unleashed on the population. The barbarity backfired, as it only fueled resentment and swelled the ranks of the Muj, who fought back against the Russians with desperate tenacity.
In one valley that served as a supply line from Pakistan, I learned that the Russian ground attack pilots would strafe any farmer they caught out in the open. Just tending fields and orchards in the valley was dangerous. To stop the flow of supplies, the Russians carpet bombed the valley several times, using mustard gas at least once.
In ten years of war, the Red Army killed somewhere between 550,000 and three million Afghan civilians. Millions more were displaced after their homes and villages were destroyed.
In Syria these past years, the Russians have demonstrated similar behavior. They have targeted civilians as part of a larger strategy to inflict terror on the terrorists. They've killed the families of known insurgents. The capture of Aleppo with Russian forces, including Wagner mercenaries, resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians.
So, the backstory to the Ukraine War is the Russian Army's continuum of behavior. It has not changed since World War II. The murders of civilians, the wanton pillaging and sexual assaults are simply a part of the tradition and legacy of the Russian military. Their values, strategic thinking, actions in the field all reflect this. They do not think or act like a Western Army and do not share the strategic values that evolved in the American military after WWII and Korea where we went from using carpet bombing and incendiaries to kill civilians from the air to doing everything possible to minimize civilian losses.
The Russian Army is a military that uses terror, torture and murder as a strategic implement to impose its will on resistant populations.
The nations of Eastern Europe know this all too well, and it is why they are doing everything possible to ensure Russian boots never touch their soil again.

[quikag]

68RR, I appreciate your continued updates. I tried to find the updates on my own, but have been unable to locate them. So, thank you for posting them here.

[cool cat]

It is all definitely a huge waste of lives, money, time and other resources. The US taxpayer got screwed over again so corruption could profit.

I'm curious as to the percentage of aid sent to Ukraine that will be funneled back to US politicians.

[ram57ta]

I'm curious as to the percentage of aid sent to Ukraine that will be funneled back to US politicians.

Probably the vast majority of it.

[Trip McNeely]

All of it. Don’t worry, I’m sure some day ‘never’, we’ll get that budget paid down.

[Rick Modena]

All of it. Don’t worry, I’m sure some day ‘never’, we’ll get that budget paid down.

Holt up?!

There's a budget???

[68RR]

Ukraine Update:
Russian artillery, relentlessly pounding Ukrainian positions in the Sievierdonetsk Pocket, is wearing the defenders down. These bombardments have been followed by piecemeal attacks that usually fail to gain much, if any ground. Earlier this week, there were sixteen apparently uncoordinated attacks around the Pocket that the Ukrainians stopped.
However, in the last 48 hours, it appears the Russians have caused a portion of the Ukrainian lines at Popasna to collapse. A tactical breakthrough with strategic implications is being reported, and the Russians are now sending reinforcements into the area.
The high ground at Popasna serves as a strategic jump-off point to the more flat terrain to the north, behind the Ukrainians defending Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. They've taken that area and have pushed northwest, west and southwest out of it to force a wider gap in the Ukrainian lines, while at the same time moving to cut off the Ukrainian main supply route into Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. This is the most strategically vulnerable I've seen the Ukrainians since the end of February.
There are reports that the Ukrainians are marshalling a counter-attack. This would make sense, and it needs to happen soon before the Russians can exploit this success.
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In front of Kharkiv, the Russians launched a local attack that recaptured the border town of Ternova. They've been bombarding villages and troop positions along the border further north by Sumy, using guns deep inside Russian territory.
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Mariupol:
Some reports are stating up to 1,700 Ukrainian troops were captured when the defenders of the steel works surrendered. There are some hold outs, and irregular forces have been attacking Russian troops, targeting officers and trains around the ruined city.
The Russians have announced plans to raze the steel works and turn Mariupol into a resort retreat.
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Aid: The 40 billion aid package passed the US Senate. It includes 20 billion in humanitarian aid, and 20 billion in military assistance. Among the new weapon systems committed in this bill are Patriot anti-aircraft missile batteries, (multiple launch rocket system) MLRS artillery platforms. The hundred million in aid just pledged includes more counter battery radars and 18 more 155mm artillery pieces with their towing vehicles and ammunition. So far, the US has given 156,000 155 artillery shells to Ukraine. Additionally, there are reports of TOW wire-guided anti-tank missiles being sent to Ukraine now as well.
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Latest reports suggest the Russians have 106 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine, with roughly 20-25 more around Belgorod, the crucial Russian border city northeast of Kharkiv that is serving as a main supply hub for the north side of the Sievierdonetsk Pocket. If the destruction of 50-55 BTGs is accurate, as has been reported, that would put all but about a dozen of their 180-190 BTGs either committed or in positions around Belgorod. This means the Russian army is almost totally committed to Ukraine with minimal strategic reserves.
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Lastly, increasing reports are coming out of Russia that it is quietly preparing to mobilize and draft military aged men. Men as old as their mid-40s are getting letters urging them to come join the military, but recently others have received notice that if ordered to mobilize, they must appear at a particular place within about a half day.
There are reports that mobilization centers have been hit with Molotov cocktail attacks throughout the Russian Federation in the past few days.
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Overall, the Ukrainians haven't wrested the strategic initiative away from the Russians yet. It looked like that might happen with the counter-offensive at Kharkiv and the destruction of the bridgeheads over the S. Donets on the north side of the Pocket. However, the Russians redoubled their pressure on the Pocket to the south, east, and northeast, and that has led to the situation at Popasna.

[68RR]

Ukraine Update:
Sievierodonetsk Pocket:
Right now, the situation appears to have worsened for the Ukrainians here. The Russian breakthrough at Popasna is being exploited with armored units, and while they have not cut the main supply route into Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk yet, that highway is now under intense artillery bombardment.
At the same time, Russian forces have launched heavy attacks north and northwest of Sievierodonetsk, which could pin Ukrainian forces in place and make any attempt to withdraw to avoid encirclement very difficult.
To the southeast of Sievierodonetsk, a major Russian assault has been grinding toward one of the city's bus stations. So the forces defending the city are being hit on at least two, possibly three sides, plus their rear is being threatened. It is a very serious situation.
Part of the reason for the Russian breakthrough at Popasna appears to be a logistical posture change that has been able to deliver a much higher quantity of artillery ammunition to the forces on the south side of the Pocket. Popasna is a key rail center, with lines going in all compass directions, something the Russians are exploiting. Exactly how they are doing it is unknown at the moment, and the Ukrainians are desperately trying to find those trains and the supply dumps they're delivering the shells to. But the net result has been the Russians were able to keep pounding the Ukrainian forces around Popasna 24/7 with massive artillery strikes without let up. The Ukrainian forces buckled, and the assaulting Russians have exploited that.
There is a lot of confusion and contradictory reporting right now. The ISW reporters that the Ukrainian general staff has stated the Russians in Popasna are digging in. It may be some units are preparing defensive positions in order to hold the breakthrough area against Ukrainian counter-attacks, but the majority of the units there seem to still be pressing their own offensive.
The Russians continue to try to cross the Siverskyi Donets River on the north side of the Pocket. Yesterday, it was reported that they successfully got across in one location. Today, there is at least one, possibly more, efforts undergoing right now to try and get across, with intense fighting the result.
A lot of the troops being thrown into these attacks around the Pocket seem to be Donbass conscripts: meaning Russian-speakers from former Ukrainian territory. The Russian army is great at using non-Russians as cannon fodder, and this seems to be what's going on here too. Some reports suggest that almost half the Russian casualties are Russian-speaking Ukrainians dragooned into service from the occupied areas.
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At Izium, the Ukrainians have launched a counter-attack west of the city. They're currently in the middle of their own river crossing effort there. No word on if it has been successful.
More later today.
Images: Maps of the breakthrough area around Popasna, a general look at the danger it poses to the Pocket, and a closer look at the fighting around Sieverodonetsk itself.