Some info from the Ukraine

[68RR]

Friday Night Update:
Tonight's update is going to be focused on what is happening in Russia.
1. This week, Putin gave a speech touting the newest generation nuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missile, which we call the Satan II, after Russia test fired it. The PR move was designed to scare and intimidate the West.
2. Shortly after he gave that speech and the test was carried out successfully, Russia's main rocket and missile research center, located in Tver, caught fire and burned to the ground. Four military rocket scientists were killed when they jumped from their offices to avoid the flames and were killed on impact with, presumably, concrete. One other was killed in the fire and lots of people were hurt in the fire.
The facility looked like a 25,000 square foot run-down office complex, inside of which the latest gen rockets and missiles were being designed. The rockets and missiles hitting Ukraine right now? Designed here in Tver. The Satan II presumably had been developed here as well.
Additionally, I did read that there was a satellite communication and control center located here. Keep that in mind as you read on.
The facility was a total fire loss. The complex is a burnt husk.
3. A few hours after the Tver fire, the largest chemical plant in Russia caught fire and burned. Extent of the damage is not known for sure, but I've seen reports that it was heavily damaged. This facility was the largest provider of solvents in Russia.
I very well could be wrong, as I am no chemist and science was way not my strong point in school, but I think this plant produced two, possibly three of the critical ingredients for both solid fueled rockets and liquid fueled ones. Russian reports dating to 2016 talk about building a plant 250 miles east of Moscow to produce Hydrazine, one of the liquid fuel ingredients.
The plant that burned is 250 miles east of Moscow and has a list of chemicals it produces for the commercial market, and several are very close to Hyrdazine. My guess is they aren't going to list the chemicals they produce for the Russian military on their website, so I'm sort of reading tea leaves here.
Additionally, this facility manufactures at least one variant of glycol. Use for various forms of glycol include: a.) Anti-freeze for vehicles. and b.) rocket fuel. The US Trident II uses a fuel made from NEPE-75:[7] Nitrate ester, plasticized polyethylene glycol-bound HMX, Aluminum, ammonium perchlorate.
4. Today (Friday), another fire broke out in a critical piece of Russian aerospace infrastructure. This was in Korolyov, the cradle of Russia's space program.
This is a city of about 225,000 that includes many key companies that produce rockets, missiles, anti-tank weapons, and Russia's space mission control facility is based here. Like NASA's Houston complex.
Exactly what caught fire here is unclear. There are sources saying it was the mission control center. Others are saying it was a building next to the mission control center.
The most believable sources, along with the video of the fire, suggest the fire started in an industrial part of the city, not their mission control complex. Lots of military production goes on in this area, but it is unclear what was burning, how much was damaged, and what the building on fire's purpose was. The local Russian media reported the fire broke out while a construction crew was working on a roof.
My own guess is that it was an artillery plant from the WWII era that had been converted to make surface to surface missiles, the kind of which are being used against targets in Ukraine right now.
Fire video here: https://twitter.com/Chaudha.../statu...82840783429632...
And here:
https://twitter.com/ruisald.../statu...22790744154112...
5. Also today, an important hydroelectric dam on the Kuban River outside of Krasnodor suddenly failed after heavy rains. The exact damage and extent of downstream flooding is not known yet. However, this is an important area in the logistical support for the Russian troops in Southern Ukraine. The rail and road net from the mainland to Sevastopol and the Kerch peninsula all go through Krasnodor. If the rails or roads have been flooded, it will impact the resupply effort for the Russian troops fighting from Kherson to Mariupol.
There is no evidence of sabotage or any sort of attack. But this has happened.
Video of the damn break: https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1517532527493365760...
6. A Russian train carrying food derailed outside of Belgorod, the border city that is a central supply hub for the Russian troops operating in Ukraine between Kharkiv and Izium and along the Sieverodonetsk Pocket. Ukrainian sources report that "rail partisans" are disrupting traffic and have damaged infrastructure in four regions of Russia and Belarus.
7. Russian media is reporting that British SAS special operations teams are in Lviv teaching Ukrainians to be saboteurs.
See the article below.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61185469?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=626349e2b1e16c43aefe7031%26Russia%20says%20British%20SAS%20%27sabotage%20specialists%27%20in%20Ukraine%262022-04-23T00%3A53%3A13.302Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:771a810f-fcd3-41da-b855-971f4c875ee5&pinned_post_asset_id=626349e2b1e16c43aefe7031&pinned_post_type=share

Imagery: Before and after of the Kuban River dam. The derailed train.
More this weekend.

[AnthonyS]

Fog of war. We'll never know most of it. We'll just get some bullet points 8 years from now, and a good portion of them will be missing.

I am curious about the mentality of the mercenaries and other paid help of the azov battalion. It's their job to know what they're up against. So why would they sign up to fight the russian army at that big ironworks? Wouldn't they know it's a lost cause, and that they're most likely going to die? It's difficult to spend your pay when you are dead.

As long as it’s poor people killing other poor people the globalists are happy. You can guarantee they were lied to about the support and arms they’d get.

[Gasser64]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGuK9xVw7EA

[AnthonyS]

I’m so shocked to learn the Ghost of Kiev was fake propaganda…….

[68RR]

Mid-Week Ukraine Update:
1. The Russian offensive grinds on with extremely limited gains and high casualties. The Russians are showing slightly better cooperation between battalion task groups, but still no true cohesion to their operations. Morale in the Russian army is very low. Getting units to attack has become more difficult, forcing senior officers to be present near the front lines.
2. There are increasing reports of disorder in the ranks of the Russian battalion task groups. If Ukrainian radio & cell phone intercepts of Russian communications are to be trusted, some very disturbing things have happened. Among them:
a.) A senior Russian officer complaining bitterly that his men will not advance unless he threatens to have them shot.
b.) Russian soldiers telling their families that they are going to wound themselves (Self-Inflicted Wounds SIW) in order to get home.
c.) One Russian BTR armored car crew got into such a ferocious argument inside their vehicle that one of them detonated a grenade, killing everyone.
d.) One Russian soldier called home to his mother and started discussing raping people and the torture and murder of prisoners who remained defiant even as he and his comrades severed their fingers, toes and penises. His mother kept calling the Ukrainians subhumans and fully supported the things he mentioned, including shoving barbed wire into POW's anuses.
e.) The NY Post reported a conversation between another Russian soldier and his wife that was another shocker. The soldier's wife gave him permission to rape Ukrainian women, provided he wore condoms.
These sorts of anecdotal stories need to be treated carefully. But collectively, if true, they paint a picture of an army with such poor discipline and such depraved behavior that it lacks the capacity to win, while at the same time generating massive moral and physical resistance on the part of the Ukrainian population.
2. The Sievierodonetsk Pocket:
The Russians have deployed 22 Battalion Tactical Groups in the Izium area, pushing down southward toward Barvinkove and Slovyansk in hopes of linking up with forces fighting north from Popasna and cutting off the Ukrainian forces in the pocket. In recent days, the Russians in the Izium area have captured about 20 kilometers of territory. They have lost thousands of troops, killed and wounded to take it.
In the first week and a half of this Easter Offensive, the Russians lost enough tanks and armored personnel carriers to equip 11 BTG's. There are reports of small Russian units being counter-attacked, cut off and virtually destroyed. In one case, an understrength mech company found themselves surrounded. Their senior officer stayed behind to give his men chance to break out. Nineteen got back to Russian lines along with only one of their BMPs.
There has been no breakthrough achieved anywhere in the fighting around the pocket. There are an estimated 60 Russian BTG's from Izium around to Sievierodonetsk and back around southwest to Popasna. Remember 125 or so went into Ukraine in the initial offensive, so this reflects an enormous commitment of combat power by the Russians.
The Ukrainians actually have more battalions in the line and in reserve here, counting their reservists/territorials. It is quite possible the Ukrainian defenders outnumber the Russian attackers.
The Russians continue to grind on in what one military affairs specialist called French WWI style tactics. Each attack begins with a massive artillery bombardment, then a ponderously slow advance by ground troops. The coordination and combined arms capabilities of the Russian army is generally poor and getting worse as the losses mount, so the attacks are unable to rip a decisive hole in the Ukrainian defenses. Those defenses, by the way, are a mixture of very well-prepared fortified positions and mobile forces fighting delaying actions.
As a result of this development, artillery is becoming increasingly important to the balance of power around the Pocket. The US, Canada, Australia and other Western nations are now supplying long-range artillery to the Ukrainians. Ukrainian artillery units are training on them outside Ukraine as well.
We have also given them MLRS multiple rocket artillery tracks whose firepower and range is practically unrivaled on this battlefield. Not sure if the Ukrainians used a US-delivered MLRS or one of their own systems, but last week they discovered the Russian Army's chief-of-staff was going to be in the Izium area for a meeting with senior level officers. The Ukrainians smothered the meeting area with an MLRS barrage. Reports are very sketchy and should be taken with a grain of salt, but some state the chief of staff took a shrapnel wound to the lower leg, while another general was killed. Others say the chief of staff left the area just before the rockets impacted. There were casualties among the senior officers--reportedly almost two dozen--along with Russian special forces troops who were providing security. Ukrainians claimed the attack inflicted about 200 casualties.
3. The Russians have assaulted the steel works in Mariupol and have fought their way into the complex. About a hundred civilians escaped the area earlier this week. It is not clear if the Russians have been able to secure a foothold in the nuclear bunker system under the steel works or if the fighting has been entirely above ground so far.
4. One unconfirmed report: Eleven Ukrainian fighter pilots are training on F-16s in Eastern Europe.
5. Airframes and spare parts have been supplied by the West to the Ukrainians. Some reports are suggesting that some of these came out of Iraq, where the US captured them during the Global War on Terror.
6. Brits are now supplying Ukraine with Brimstone precision guided missiles. These are akin to US Hellfire anti-tank missiles, but with greater flexibility. They can be air launched or ground launched, and are designed for use against mass formations of armor. They are guided both by laser designators and by radar. There are reports that they can be used against ships.
7. Turning to the Black Sea, several developments:
a. Russia has pulled a number of its amphibious warfare landing ships out of Sevastopol and rebased them in the Eastern Black Sea.
b. Ukrainian drones sank two Russian Raptor patrol boats this week with missile strikes.https://twitter.com/kemal_115/status...22750084763648...
c. The Brits and Norwegians are sending long-range, surface launched anti-ship missiles to Ukraine. These systems have the capability of hitting Russian ships anywhere in the Western Black Sea, including in port at Sevastopol, which is possibly the reason the landing ships moved east.
This is actually an humanitarian effort. By denying the Western Black Sea to Russian ships, and using SU-27 fighter-bombers in conjunction with NATO AWACs airborne radar aircraft to deny the airspace to Russian strategic bombers, the Ukrainians can reopen the port of Odesa and start shipping wheat by towed barges to Romania. There the wheat can be transferred to NATO-flagged ships and sent south to North Africa and the Middle East.
This is literally going to help mitigate the growing catastrophe of food shortages already hammering Egypt, Lebanon and other African & Middle Eastern nations. Ukrainian wheat is vital to the world's ability to eat, and getting that pipeline flowing again will forestall countless deaths by starvation later this year in the regions most dependent on Ukrainian imports.
8. Wheat:
a.) Russians have been targeting wheat warehouses with bombs and missiles.
b.) The Ukrainian wheat stocks they've captured in the areas they now control are being removed to Russia, signaling that the Russians intend to starve the Ukrainians in the occupied zones as they did in the 1930s.
c.) Russian state tv ran a show where its talking heads discussed how great it would be to steal Ukrainian wheat and send it to the Chinese. They did this about the same time they ran video simulations on state TV of nuclear attacks on the UK and their talking heads discussed how quickly different nuclear missile and torpedo systems could destroy London.

[68RR]

9. Putin:
At least two sources, the Sun in the UK and the NY Post here in the States, have reported Putin needs cancer surgery and will turn power over to one of his hard line FSB cronies who is all-in on the Ukrainian effort and very anti-west. I have no idea if this is true.
Last night, a small UK media outlet reported that the Kremlin is on high alert as coup rumors are spreading through Moscow. This source reported the conspirators are a combination of FSB officers and military generals. See the full story here: https://twitter.com/CityAM/status/1521835763259871233
10. Russian losses now are estimated at 24,500 killed in action. This would be mean they've lost about 6,000 troops since the Easter Offensive began. Figure on three wounded for every killed, and the picture is very grim for the Russians--almost 75,000 combat losses in a force that originally totaled between 180-200k. British reports suggest the Russian army has lost 25% of its combat power in 69 days of battle.
An indicator on how desperate their supply situation is: An abandoned Grad rocket launcher was captured and photographed by Ukrainains. The tires were in a deplorable state--half rotted out and several had blown. Embossed on the tire walls were the words, "Made in the USSR." These were tires manufactured for export, mainly to India, back in the 80s and early 90s. It is possible the factory that made them did not retool for years after the collapse, but even assuming they kept producing them for 10 years, that would make the tires at least 20 years old.
11. Attacks inside Russia continue. Oil targets, bridges, rail lines, and missile production facilities have all been hit in the last week. There was also an unexplained fire at a Russian airbase in the Far East. No word on if that was unrelated to the ongoing sabotage effort.
12. Belarus announced military maneuvers and training exercises are going to commence soon.
13. NATO is deploying a rapid response task force to Romania.
Imagery: Maps from the different fronts as of today, Russian known BTGs deployed to Izium, full table of estimated Russian losses to May 4, and Russian naval losses in the Black Sea.

[AnthonyS]

Sorry no one cares about the Ukraine anymore; they all have babies to dismember.

[Strychnine]

Mid-Week Ukraine Update:
1. The Russian offensive grinds on with extremely limited gains and high casualties. The Russians are showing slightly better cooperation between battalion task groups, but still no true cohesion to their operations. Morale in the Russian army is very low. Getting units to attack has become more difficult, forcing senior officers to be present near the front lines.
2. There are increasing reports of disorder in the ranks of the Russian battalion task groups. If Ukrainian radio & cell phone intercepts of Russian communications are to be trusted, some very disturbing things have happened. Among them:
a.) A senior Russian officer complaining bitterly that his men will not advance unless he threatens to have them shot.
b.) Russian soldiers telling their families that they are going to wound themselves (Self-Inflicted Wounds SIW) in order to get home.
c.) One Russian BTR armored car crew got into such a ferocious argument inside their vehicle that one of them detonated a grenade, killing everyone.
d.) One Russian soldier called home to his mother and started discussing raping people and the torture and murder of prisoners who remained defiant even as he and his comrades severed their fingers, toes and penises. His mother kept calling the Ukrainians subhumans and fully supported the things he mentioned, including shoving barbed wire into POW's anuses.
e.) The NY Post reported a conversation between another Russian soldier and his wife that was another shocker. The soldier's wife gave him permission to rape Ukrainian women, provided he wore condoms.
These sorts of anecdotal stories need to be treated carefully. But collectively, if true, they paint a picture of an army with such poor discipline and such depraved behavior that it lacks the capacity to win, while at the same time generating massive moral and physical resistance on the part of the Ukrainian population.

What a fucking shitshow

[Rick Modena]

What a fucking shitshow

looks as though Professor J. Mearsheimer was right all along. Let them attack the country of Ukraine, it will bankrupt them.

Reading all of this info shows how much their military has gone the way of democracy.

[Labora]

looks as though Professor J. Mearsheimer was right all along. Let them attack the country of Ukraine, it will bankrupt them.

Reading all of this info shows how much their military has gone the way of democracy.

Seems to be the case, just have to wonder if they will push the big red button at some point out of desperation.

Sounds like they are having a lot of internal strife and even sabotage with various buildings getting lit up.

[line-em-up]

https://gab.com/BeachMilk/posts/108259787967311231

[AnthonyS]

After working with Russians, Ukrainians and knowing too many leftists, I don’t believe anything any Commies say. I believe none of these posts on the Ukraine. Show me real video footage, and I will decide for myself. Hundreds of cameras on NY subways, everyone carries one in their pockets now, and there is no video of the mass murder on the Subway….. no video of Epstein…. and so little real footage from the Ukraine.

Everything for the US gulf war when Schwartzkopf was in command was on live feed 24/7.

Everything now is highly controlled curated and stinks of BS.

The world is so full of shit now the most trusted man on the planet is the Fear Factor dude.

I don’t buy any of this copy pasta BS from any side.

And as long as our border is a gaping post abortion vagina, I don’t care one iota about the Ukraine’s border.

It’s still not too late to WTFU, or is it?

[Gasser64]

Russia's victory parade:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czKIvFGMJPU

[68RR]

Ukraine Update
The Return of the Blood Miller of Verdun:
In February 1916, Germany's Chief of the Army General Staff Erich von Falkenhayn unleased a new strategy to end WWI in the West.
Exsanguination.
The idea behind the new strategy was to pick a place the French would have to defend, then smother the troops there with the largest artillery bombardment in human history. Taking land was less important than killing French soldiers, and the German troops on the ground were to only move forward in slow, deliberate advances carried out only after their artillery smashed everything in their line of advance.
There was no breakthrough intended or sought with this strategy. It was straight up a strategy of simple macro level killing. Bleed the French Army white until it collapses was the order of the day.
This horrific new offensive began in February 1916 with about 800 German artillery pieces firing a million shells into a 20 mile long front three miles deep. A hundred plus years later, the shell craters can still be seen, having permanently scarred the French countryside.
Initially, the new offensive seemed to work. The French took devastating losses, while German infantry units suffered very few. However, the exsanguination campaign required sustained commitments that sucked German resources away from other areas. Millions of artillery shells, gas shells, new barrels for the guns, etc. had to be fed into this tiny battlefront at a time when Germany was fighting a two front war.
And, as the campaign continued, it morphed into something more than Falkenhayn had intended, much like Stalingrad and Guadalcanal did in WWII: it became a titanic battle of wills between two warring nations. So much was staked on this battle, that Germany had to show its people some sort of success, which of course was defined by territory gained. As the campaign wore on through the spring and early summer, the Germans used infantry attacks more often to try and rip a hole in the French lines. Take Verdun, and German national morale would soar. Lose Verdun, and French morale may buckle.
Ultimately, this campaign to bleed the French white did just that, but it bled the German Army white as well. What had started as a way to minimize German losses ended with somewhere around 350,000 men killed, wounded or missing. The French lost about 400,000. Falkenhayn, who became known as the Blood Miller of Verdun, was demoted and sent to go invade Romania. The French Army, badly hurt by these losses, attempted a massive frontal assault offensive in the spring of 1917, lost tens of thousands of men in the first 48 hours to no gain, and mutinied. It was never the same after that.
A hundred years later, farmers in the Verdun area continue to plow up the remains of unknown soldiers from both sides. They are taken to the Ossuaire and interred there.

[68RR]

What does this have to do with Ukraine?
----------------
The Russians have a complex strategic dilemma. They've seen first hand that their maneuver battalion tactical groups have at best, limited abilities to carry out effective offensive operations. Troop morale is terrible. There are reports of local commanders executing some of their own men to motivate the others to go forward, a practice that harkens back to the classical era and was called Decimation in the Roman Army.
They lack supplies and in some areas, combat power to achieve a major breakthrough. They cannot replace tank and vehicle losses. And, unless they mobilize their entire nation, they are running out of manpower. A full mobilization could have lots of consequences on the Russian home front, so Putin has not done that yet.
The one thing the Russians have is artillery and its firepower. So they've gone full Falkenhayn and are using it to grind down the Ukrainian Army much as the Germans tried at Verdun. The Sievierodonetsk Pocket has become the 2022 version of the Verdun Salient of 1916. Here, the Ukrainians must fight and hold the majors cities, and that strategically has tied them to defending an area surrounded on three sides by the bulk of Russia's remaining forces--and its artillery assets.
We have no real idea on how hard the Ukrainians are being hit, as those numbers are well concealed by Kyiv and the Russian claims are ridiculously high. The Ukrainians are doing their best to mitigate Russian firepower by keeping much of their defenses mobile. Some are calling this yo-yo tactics. Basically, the Ukrainians have a network of fixed defenses resistant to artillery that anchor their lines. Between them, mobile Ukrainian forces are fighting delaying actions, falling back, counter-attacking, then falling back again. They're wearing away at the Russians at the same time the Russians are trying to wear down the Ukrainians. It is a massive battle of attrition. The Russians have gained some ground, but they have not achieved any of the deep penetrations I think most in the West would have expected from a heavily mechanized armor-heavy army. The Russians just don't have that capacity, too limited by their morale issues, training deficiencies, equipment and small logistics tail.
However, they can grind away, wear down the Ukrainians, then make key gains of lesser depth and requiring lesser penetrations. This is happening right now, and may be one of the most important moments of the campaign in the Donbas.
On the north side of the pocket, the Russians have attempted, or have actually crossed the Siverskyi-Donets River and might have established a foothold near a town called Belogorovka. If they are able to exploit this, they might be able to cut off Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from immediately behind both cities. This would be a shallow penetration, not a deep one like the effort at Izium was designed to do, so it is within the capabilities of the Russian military at this point.
Exactly what has happened at this bridgehead is unclear. There has been heavy fighting. Ukrainain Air Force jets have launched attacks, as have UKR artillery units. There are lots of drone photos of destroyed armored vehicles around wrecked pontoon bridges and both sides are claiming those are the other's tracks. One thing is clear, a large battle is taking place.
One account from a Ukrainian engineer is here:
https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506104192974849...
There are unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian forces defending the city of Sievierodonetsk received conflicting orders: stay and keep fighting/pull out. They were caught in the middle of moving/return to their defensive positions by the Russians and badly chewed up by artillery.
------------------------
Into this mix, the first Western artillery systems are arriving at the front lines. Ukrainian units have undergone crash training courses on them in Germany, working with U.S. National Guard units--including one Florida artillery battalion. These guns, the ammunition we provide, the counter-battery radar systems and the UAV's Turkey is providing will inflict heavy losses on Russian artillery units.
Additionally, they will be able to range across Russia's lines of supply, thanks to the successes reserve Ukrainian units have had in a counter-attack they've launched northeast of Kharkiv.
With the Russians focused on the Donbas, the Ukrainians have methodically cleared the Russian forces out of the Kharkiv area, pushed them out of artillery range of the city to relieve the civilian population there, and have driven all the way to the Russian border in one place. The Russians hold no more than a depth of 10 kms of Ukrainian territory in this area now, and Western-made artillery deployed to the region can barrage the rail lines, bridges and roads the Russian effort at Izium depends on. Additionally, a key Russian hydroelectric dam is now reportedly within Ukrainian artillery range.
Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv consist now of three battered BTGs. Maybe a couple thousand men total. This has forced the Russians to move troops away from the Donbas and send them north to Belgograd, the Russian border city that's northeast of Kharkiv. Ukrainian intelligence estimates the Russians now have about 20 BTGs there, which is almost as many as they threw into the Izium offensive. This could indicate they are planning to counter-attack and try to push the Ukrainians back to Kharkiv.
Whatever their intentions, the Ukrainians have forced the Russians to pull units away from their main effort in the Donbas, making them even more reliant on the grinding mill of artillery and possibly making it more difficult to reinforce whatever bridgehead they have established over the S. Donets.
-----------------
Western news reports, based on Ukrainian official releases, have detailed the efforts the Russians have made to conceal their actual losses to their own people. If these stories are true, it is nothing short of ghoulish. In the Donbas, they have created what amounts to a gigantic body dump. Families wanting the remains of their loved ones have to bribe the guards to go search through the piles of corpses to find their son or husband. Other reports of bodies being stacked or stored elsewhere have dotted the narrative since February. Bottom line: if this is true, the Russians would only do this if 1.) they are short transport to return them home or 2.) they fear the domestic consequences if the actual casualties were known to its people.
-------------------
The head of Russia's 2nd largest oil company died under strange circumstances. Allegedly, he died after a shaman gave him a dose of venom from a poisonous toad as a cure for a hangover. Alexander Subbotin had opposed the war in February and called for a quick peaceful resolution. He's the sixth billionaire oligarch to die under strange circumstances since the start of the war.
Images: Maps of the various fronts, plus imagery from the bridgehead.