Quick Noon Update for Monday:
1. Russian troops had been dispersing crowds of Ukrainian civilian protesters by shooting into the air over the weekend. According to video footage I've seen, they fired into the crowd earlier today, inflicting casualties on the civilians. Reportedly grenades were thrown by the Russian troops as well, but I've not been able to confirm that. There were either smoke or tear gas grenades thrown in one video of the scene.
2. The Azov Battalion claims it hit a Russian patrol boat off Mariupol. The Russians are now bombarding the city from the sea with their Black Sea naval units.
3. Ukrainian estimates of Russian troop losses is now 15k KIA. Over the weekend, the Russians allegedly moved 2,500 corpses out of what had been the main effort NW of Kyiv in convoys of ambulances. They were brought to railheads at Belarus for shipment home. Videos of that convoy made the rounds in the pro-war community in Russia and left them pretty shaken at the scale of the losses. Additionally, Russian social media includes a number of active military groups and officer associations, military family groups, etc. Just like the US military has on FB. They've been posting a long, long litany of memorials for fallen members. So, word of the level of carnage the Russian army has endured is getting out.
4. The Ukrainians are claiming they wiped out an entire airborne regiment almost down to the last man. More on that tonight. A lot of officers from that unit are showing up in the social media memorials in Russia, so this may have some validity.
5. The Russians have "disappeared" over 1,000 Ukrainians captured around Mariupol. Exactly where they were taken or what their status is remains unclear. Lots of speculation. This is part of the Russian effort to eliminate anyone who might oppose their occupation, including local officials, mayors, etc.
6. Belarus has not crossed into Ukraine yet. The Telegram feed "GeneralSVR" which has been providing insight into Putin's inner circle and is of uncertain quality, posted last night that the Belarus leadership knows this will be catastrophic if they do join the war, and are delaying as long as they can with Putin growing increasingly strident in his demands they get in the fight.
7. Ukrainian intel leaked that there is a plot against Putin right now, engineered by some of the oligarchs, who intend to poison him and replace him with the head of the FSB. The head of the FSB is an ultra-loyalist hardliner who once stated on the record that Stalin's purges of the 1930s were a necessary and legitimate thing. So, pick your poison. Hahaha. Also, I think this is the Ukrainians trying to mess with Putin and stoke his paranoia. He's already got his intel agencies pointing fingers, purging each other and scrambling around investigating each other for leaks. The Ukrainians are probably just trying to fuel this fire. ��
More tonight.
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Belarus is sending its army toward the Ukrainian border. Its vehicles are marked with red squares painted on their sides.
Belarus has about 50,000 troops total, mostly conscripts who serve for 18 months.
Ukrainian intelligence is concerned that the Belarusians will attack into western Ukraine, effectively opening another front.
The war is unpopular in Belarus among its citizens.
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status...40938949033988...Leave a comment:
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Sunday Update:
1. The Russians have given Ukraine until March 21 to surrender Mariupol. No explanation of what would happen if they did not.
2. The Belurus diplomatic mission left Ukraine this weekend, fueling speculation that the Belarus government would send its army into Ukraine. Or at least try to.
3. The Russians have "disappeared" over a thousand civilians they have detained in Mariupol. Nobody knows where they have been taken or their fate.
4. Russian forces have scored a number of wins this weekend. They hit a barracks in Mykolaiv and killed or wounded scores of Ukrainian Soldiers. They also reportedly knocked out 1/5th of the Ukrainian Air Force's remaining MiG-29s in that missile attack on Lviv a few days ago.
5. The Russian air force has barely even operated over Ukraine in recent days. See the chart below in the photo section. Not clear what this is the case.
6. The Russians lost a regimental commander this weekend, plus the a deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet. He was that command's political officer. He was apparently killed at Mariupol.
7. Russians have allegedly mined the western portion of the Black Sea. No confirmation on that.
8. Two insightful videos: a.) A look at a captured Russian trench/foxhole line outside of Kyiv. Indicative of the static nature of their blitzkrieg now. and b.) This is a Russian convoy getting hit with what looks like an IED. It was probably only a matter of time that mines or IEDs would start salting Russian lines of communication.
https://twitter.com/Osintte.../statu...76617358577664...
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505481363063025664...Leave a comment:
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Brief Saturday Night Update:
Ukraine:
1. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW)'s daily assessment called the Russian invasion a failure today. "Ukrainian forces have defeated the Russians in the first campaign of the war." They foresee a very bloody stalemate and made comparisons to WWI trench warfare.
2. When the initial invasion failed, the Russians resorted to firepower applied to Ukrainian cities in hopes of breaking morale and forcing a surrender by slaughtering civilians. The lesson of WWII is that deliberating targeting civilians hardens resolve, it does not destroy it. See the Battle of Britain or the massive bombing campaign against Germany as examples.
That is exactly what has happened here. The Russian decision to kill innocents has guaranteed Ukrainians will continue to fight hard, and that the chance of integrating Ukraine successfully into a great Russian federation is now next to impossible.
3. Belarussian railroad workers unilaterally destroyed the rail lines connecting Ukraine and their country. This was done as a direct protest of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and has massive strategic implications for the Russians. They are absolutely dependent on rail-based re-supply--even more so now that their logstical brigades have lost so many trucks and fuel tankers. In order to supply the forces in what had been their main effort against Kyiv--the Northwest pincer-- they will have to use trucks exclusively, and the pipelines they've been assembling.
This is an extraordinary act of defiance and a significant strategic victory for the Ukrainians. It should also be noted that during the Russian Revolution, the railway workers were among the first to turn on the government and were always in the vanguard of the movement.
Exactly how they destroyed the connections has not been released.
For a map of the rail lines in Belarus, see this:
4. The Russians launched a hypersonic missile--from what I gather it is essentially an Iskander surface-to-surface missile reconfigured for launch from a Russian aircraft-- at a munitions storage facility. There are conflicting accounts of what and where this missile hit. Early reports suggested the Russians targeted a facility close to the Romanian border.
One source reports that the target was an old 12th GUMO nuclear weapons storage facility from the Cold War. Ukraine gave up all its nuclear weapons in the 1990s in return for security guarantees (which have been ignored), but the infrastructure for storing them is still there.
The 12th GUMO is the Russian military district that oversaw and continues to oversee their nuclear weapons storage facilities.
The Russians believed it was being used as a missile storage site and did not target it because they thought the Ukrainians have nuclear weapons there.
The Drive has investigated and concluded they hit a facility already hammered by artillery fire in Eastern Ukraine. See that here:
https://www.thedrive.com/.../we-have-questions-about...
The significance of this attack is that it was intended to showcase a new type of weapon system that the West has not yet fielded. So, it was a message to NATO, part of the ongoing undertone of the war. Lots of subtle and not so subtle messages being sent back and forth right now. Just like in the Cold War.
5. Another analyst worth following is https://twitter.com/JominiW
His assessment today is very thorough with detailed battle maps that I have included below. He concluded that the Russians have a.) lost the strategic initiative. b.) Are facing the real possibility that they will not be able to achieve anything to justify their expenditure in lives and treasure. c.) Have become increasingly focused on purging captured areas of local leadership & hunting insurgents. d.) That if they can't get their offensive underway anytime soon, Ukrainian counter-attacks will only increase and score more blows.
More on the strategic situation tomorrow.Leave a comment:
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Sorry Guys, missed this post from yesterday:
Evening Update:
Today has been a significant one in Ukraine. I'm going to break the update into two parts, Strategic and Ukraine specific. Today's protest aboard the ISS needs its own moment here, as it is tectonic.
Three men in space, representing their nation to the world. Wearing the colors of the country their leader has invaded.
Amazing.
I've made this public. Please share far and wide.
Strategic:
1. Seven NATO nations have stated they will support sending a NATO peacekeeper force into Ukraine. They are: Denmark, Poland, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. France and Slovakia have signaled they would vote to support this as well.
2. Putin held what could only be described as a bizarre rally in Moscow today, attended by "200,000" people (the stadium holds 80,000). He made Biblical references and made comments about Russian fighting against genocide. A BBC reporter was on the scene and asked people what they thought. Interesting things happened.
First, a lot of them refused to speak to the BBC. The anti-war protesters with a lot more to lose almost always talk to the Western media when present. Some were so nervous as to cover their faces.
Second: Those who did talk to the BBC reporter said the same things.
--My entire workplace was ordered to attend the rally or face termination.
--I was told I had to show up or I would lose wages.
--There seemed to be a preponderance of government/public employees. Teachers, public works folks, civil functionaries, etc.
--Students were given the day off from studying if they showed up to a concert. They were not told it was a pro-war rally.
--The people largely willing to talk to the BBC crew were opposed to the war.
3. Russia is blocking Youtube as of today.
4. Three Russian cosmonauts arrived at the International Space Station today. Normally, their flight suits are either blue or light colored. See the photo for what they wore today.
What a message this sends the world, to Russians and to Putin.
I confess, when I saw this, I got choked up. Total guts move, and if Putin survives this, when they get back the consequences to them will be significant.
Being a late-Cold War era kid, the Cosmonauts were always hailed as heroes of the Soviet State. Outright defiance to the Krelmlin like this would have been unthinkable. This is a remarkable moment.
https://twitter.com/jeanv00/status/1504959258546348033...
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Saturday Update I:
Strategic:
1. Reportedly, Putin has plans to ban all foreign companies that do not return by May 1. The ban will last ten years.
2. Two UK tabloids, the Daily Star and the Mirror, reported Putin announced to his inner circle that they would be participating in a nuclear evacuation drill. His advisors were shocked, but all agreed. The political leadership of the country was then informed and asked to participate as well.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/.../vladimi...n-asks-kremlin...
This story comes from one source, GeneralSVR. This is a Telegram and Youtube channel of Russians who claim to have connections within Putin's inner circle. I have no visibility yet on its credibility. Most recently, the feed's Telegram posts state that the Russians have lost 17,000 men in combat, including mercenaries, since the invasion began.
Could this be true? Supporting evidence: the recent Rossiya Special Flight Squadron's activities mentioned in earlier posts suggest they were running some sort of exercise. So it is possible. I have found no other sources on this to back it up, so it unconfirmed rumor at this point.
However, one thing to keep in mind: Most of the US and Russia's nuclear warheads are in storage. Each side has roughly 1600 weapons active, thousands more in storage. There is a big distinction between tactical/theater/strategic weapons.
Tactical warheads are small yield--some less than a kiloton, others less than 100 kilotons. For reference, Hiroshima was roughly estimated at between 15-25 kilotons depending on the source.
Tactical warheads are designed to be used on the battlefield to influence the course of a conventional conflict. They can be mounted on the same surface-to-surface missiles currently being used to attack Ukraine with conventional explosives. They can also be dropped from aircraft (bombs).
Theater nuclear weapons are mounted on longer ranged missles and were originally designed during the Cold War to be intermediate ranged-missiles with the range to hit targets throughout Europe.
Strategic nuclear weapons are much higher yield thermonuclear warheads that are carried aboard ballistic missile submarines or on intercontinental ballistic missiles, fired from mobile launchers (US has them in silos). There are also strategic weapons carried by bombers by both sides.
Despite the nuclear threats Putin has made over the past couple of weeks, the BBC and other sources, including various nuclear policy experts from different US think tanks, have noted that the Russians have not moved any warheads out of storage, and their nuclear forces have not indicated any higher state of readiness.
Several of their warhead storage facilities are within about 60 miles of the Ukrainian border. As of a few days ago, there's been no unusual activity at them.
There is a sense among some of these nuclear weapons analysts that the Russian nuclear force is a deterrent that has rotted from the inside, as the Army clearly has. Low functionality, low readiness. Lots of issues.
Lastly, there has been lots of scary chatter on various cable news shows, lots of speculation on whether Putin will use nuclear weapons and what the West's response will be. So far, there is no real-world indication that I can find that he is moving this direction.
The mainstream media chatter on this, the tabloid chatter and the speculation by "experts" I know is probably stressing a lot of us out right now. I would say this: ignore that stuff. It isn't news, it is infotainment.
Instead, keep an eye on these folks:
1. The Wilson Center is non-partisan think tank with great insight on what is going on all over the world. Its blog articles cover every aspect of foreign relations and all the current issues facing the US.
2. The Carnigie Institute is another great think tank and resource.
3. Ankit Panda is a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie.
Ankit Panda That is his twitter feed.
4. @james_acton32 is a co-director at the Carnegie and a nuclear policy expert.
5. The Stimson Center is another great policy think tank. It has a focus on nuclear weapons and nonproliferation.
6. @WilliamMMoon Is a fellow at the Stimson who focused on nuclear security. This is his twitter feed.
These are incredibly stressful times, and lots of alarmist stuff is being thrown around that affect all of us. These six are all worth watching/checking/following for much better insight on what is happening.
The one thing the pandemic has taught me is this: ignore the popular media and the news talk shows. Go straight to the experts. They are out there, connected on social media, especially Twitter. Their research institutes and think tanks are out there as well.
Each realm of experts have their own "Twitterverse"--from WWII historian Twitter, to 49'er Twitter, to Biodefense Science Twitter, etc. Tapping into them, asking questions, swapping information in return for insight into the book business, etc---making contacts is how I followed the pandemic, the fall of Afghanistan, and now the war in Ukraine with all its many global consequences. Anyone can do it. Over the past two years, I've masqueraded at a journalist to gain access to telebriefings and other events. I've always been a fly on the wall, never asking questions. I've come away with strong opinions on a lot of matters related to how our media currently functions from those moments, and that's what has driven me to seek out these alternate sources.
Thanks, all, for being so appreciative of these posts. It means a lot.
JohnB
Vladimir Putin 'asks Kremlin staff to perform doomsday nuclear attack drill'
MIRROR.CO.UK
Vladimir Putin 'asks Kremlin staff to perform doomsday nuclear attack drill'Leave a comment:
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Hilarious how the gas prices are putins fault, when Bidet shut off the pipeline.Leave a comment:
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March 16 - Day 21 - The UAF strikes back
Hi FB,
I think the most important thing that happened today was “limited” counterattacks to the north of Kyiv. The important part is what “limited” actually means here.
According to UAF official sources they made a concerted but limited porthward push to the west of Kyiv, vicinity of Makarivka, the main element of which was a lot of artillery. It’s not clear how much or if the Ukrainians advanced in this area, but according to the Ukrainians the Russian Federation (RF) units took some punishment. In Brovary, I am told, there was a big artillery shoot during the night, and then things have been quiet. Later in the day the UAF reported it turned back a big column at Vishneve and put in a counter-attack, again with lots of artillery. In Irpen’, I am told, the village is fully under UAF control and yet another big RF vehicle column was smashed. None of this is confirmed, but I am confident in these sources. A Radio Liberty reporter posted images of a smashed tank and said saw UAF forces captured a village, and five RF combat vehicles. This engagement was reportedly to the north of Kyiv, but no more specifics.
Taken together, all this leads me to guess that the UAF tried to push forward to the north of Kyiv and where it came into contact with RF forces it stopped, engaged with all weapons, and afterwards probably consolidated.
This push, or pushes, was almost certainly linked to the first shelling of Kyiv proper, which took place yesterday, albeit by this war’s standards it wasn’t too much, some hits to a shopping mall and an apartment building with two people killed. This morning, another shell hit another Kyiv apartment building, injuring two. I know it sounds horrible and flippant to reduce smashed homes and dead people to “not too much”. But given the scale of this war, RF strikes like that aren’t even pin pricks. Still, throughout the war the national leadership has been super sensitive about any threat to the capital. What this looks like to me is the start of a careful, casualty-avoiding, but nonetheless systemic attempt to push the RF back.
Let that sink in a little: Three weeks into the war, and the Ukrainians are counterattacking. For real.
General Zaluzhny, UAF commander, today said there were counterattacks at “several other locations”. No more details. Most likely these attacks - assuming they happened - were purely local and the main goals were local as well: improve the terrain the UAF holds, or damage and destroy the enemy.
A counter strike we speculated about yesterday was confirmed today: Indeed, the Ukrainians did hit Kherson airfield, yes, the airfield had a couple of dozen RF helicopters on it, and you don’t have to guess, NASA released satellite pix showing at least six and probably eight or more RF choppers burning, and pock marks all over the tarmac. I’m not clear whether the UAF air force or artillery did the work. Maybe both.
Then there was this upbeat item: Remember the mayor of Melitpool, Ivan Fedorov, whom the Russian arrested and hauled away, because they captured his town and he refused to collaborate? Details are thin, but, it appears the Ukrainian special forces in a raid of some kind freed him from Russian detention, and he’s back in UAF hands. A video appeared of Zelenskyy taking to Federov, who had been held and according to news reports tortured, for nearly a week.
It doesn’t look good when the scary country that invented the KGB and the Great Purges, loses prisoners to Ukrainian special operations teams.
News reports in Odessa were scrambling all over each other over the last 24 hours to report on six RF warships, led by the cruiser Moskva, followed by landing ships potentially carrying 4,000 RF Marines, that had sortied the day before from Sevastopol, and now were sailing back and forth north of Odessa region. At one point, according to the reports, the RF ships bombarded a village called Novoselivka, reportedly 900 rounds fired. Base on previous news reports, the UAF has an installation in the vicinity.No information on damage or casualties.
According to a pair of Odessa officials, sunrise brought a pair of RF Su-34 fighter-bombers quite close to the city itself. UAF air defense, according pretty much every Ukrainan news agency today, shot both of them down, supposedly within view of early-rising Odessite on the shore. The pilots reportedly catapulted successfully but, given the near freezing temperatures in the Black Sea, there was little chance they survived, the reports said.
In Mariupol,during the day a report came in that the commander of Azov Regiment, Mykola “Hook” Kravchenko, died in combat.The Regimental statement said his father died two weeks ago, in Kharkiv, and that Azov would fight on.Later in the day shocking reports came in that the RF dropped a bomb on the Drama Theater in which - I hope this isn’t true - were sheltering more than 1,000 people whose homes elsewhre had been destroyed. Fighting is continuing. I have no information on whether a relief convoy got in or out.
The second half of the day, news wise, was pretty much overwhelmed with reports of progress in the peace talks, which according to participants have been going fairly well. The key points were that the Ukrainians generally agree to give up on NATO and be neutral, and to keep “certain” weapon systems out of Ukrainian territory. The Russians, for their part, will go back to the pre-February 24 start lines, and give up on their condition that Ukraine recognize Russian ownership of Crimea and the “independence” of the DLPR.
The sticking point, and it’s a big one, is how Ukraine guarantees it security against Russia in the future. Several Ukrainian officials have said this would be impossible without a third party nation with nukes being obliged by treaty to step in and fight with Ukraine, if Ukraine is invaded again. There aren’t that many nuclear states and I’m not sure India or Pakistan would agree to the role. The implication - and this is why Ukraine’s status gets attention in Beijing and Washington, is that if Ukraine can’t get a guarantee like that, then the war goes on, and Ukraine will have every incentive to develop nuclear weapons of its own. If they haven’t started already. In any case, by evening Kyiv had come out with a formal statement that it’s way too early to discuss ceasefire terms, all that can be said is the talks are ongoing.
Here is one possible reason why the Ukrainians might not be in a hurry: Today the Americans did what they do best, they threw overwhelming resources at a problem. Following a Zelenskyy Zoom speech to Congress, Washington approved a one billion dollar military aid package to Ukraine. Among the weapons are 800 more Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, 9,000 anti-tank missiles (among that 2,000 more javelins and 6,000 AT4 rockets), 5,000 rifles, grenade launchers, machine guns, (i.e, enough to equip Ukraine’s special forces command about twice, or an expanded special forces command once) and 20 million rounds of ammunition. Plus 25,000 sets of body armor and helmets.This is all infantry firepower, and as the war has shown, well-armed Ukrainian infantry stops Russian attacks cold.
Beyond that, the Americans are sending 100 kamikaze UAVs, called Switchblade. Each has a range of about 50 km, it’s faster than a Bayraktar, and it’s almost cheaper than a vanilla artillery shell. So you can have lots of them. The small one kills people, the big version destroys vehicles. This is a top-of-the-line, cutting-edge weapon that, in the hands of soldiers who know how to use it, make it close to impossible for an opponent to move in the open. Once these weapons get into Ukrainian hands, they will have the ability to drop a smart munition onto, well, anything. 100 l assume is a sample - these things are supposed to be really cheap. So later lots of them.
Late addition: I see now the British are sending their hand-held anti-aircraft missiles, and the Slovakians are thinking about sending big S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.
I won’t say game over Russia, but I will say all this weaponry is a very good reason for the Ukrainians to drag out the negotiations. The writing is on the wall. Not only will the sanctions bite, but, over time, what with all the material in the pipeline for the Ukrainians, the RF’s already badly beaten-up invasion force will get whittled down to very little. From where I sit the Ukrainians are now clearly winning, and every day a ceasefire is delayed, the scale of their victory is going to get bigger.Leave a comment:
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Paul Varga
The one thing i find a little puzzling is that back in January the consensus among the military analysis community was that Ukraine had a standing army of about 290000 before they impressed all eligible males and added foreign volunteers and even women and teenagers that want to fight. The immediate prewar estimates of total Russian personnel at about 180k spread over the length of their border from Belarus to the Black Sea. All the news reports seem to indicate Russian losses in the tens of thousands, thousands of vehicles. The Russians have been static it seems for almost two weeks. We have by all accounts provided at least 17000 Javelins which without any other weapons would be enough to destroy every vehicle in the Russian mechanized brigades which under normal warfare situations leave their infantry and heavy weapons and rear echelon forces open to attack. My question is if the Russian logistics is bad, they are picking off armor and apcs like flies and they have enough anti tank weapons, why is it that the Ukrainians have not closed with the enemy and forced them to withdraw??? I see all these posts about how bad the Russians are losing and being killed, yet i have not heard one iota about any sort of an advance to the east forcing the Russians back to their own borders??? If the Ukrainian military losses have not as been severe, i would think they have enough men to rally and start a push back but all i have seen is plea for more and more weapons?? And the truth is once the steppes dry out and harden from the late winter rains and snow, Russian armor will more likely disperse and not remain as juicy targets on roads and main highways. Basically an endless defense never wins a war. As long as they don't start a concerted and broad front counteroffensive driving back the Russians in a sweeping advance, all i see happening is either the use of bigger and more destructive stand off weapons by the Russians to pulverize the cities into dust or they will keep throwing expendable men in ground units into the breach to replace men killed but whose units as a whole have not been forced to withdraw.
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John R Bruning
Paul Varga I think the Ukrainians have been hit very hard too, but their reserves are now mobilized with gave them an extra 200,000 men. And what looks to be a large counter-offensive is now underway. The timing for that could not be better with how dire the Russian supply situation seems to beLeave a comment:
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John R Bruning
Stefan Korshak
Shane Glasspool
Roy's notes:this is, some really good insight from John, into the morale of the RT forces at present. I'm going to be including Shane,in these posts from now on(and sharing his stuff too).Shane is ex PWRR(sniper)and on the front line in Kyiv/Irpin.
Evening Update:
1. There is some sort of Ukrainian counter-offensive underway. Very sketchy information at the moment, but some sources are saying the Russians have been pushed out of Irpin to the West of Kyiv. The Russians had apparently secured about 30% of the city. There have been gains made to the east of Kyiv as well. In the south, Ukrainian forces overran a Russian artillery battery at Mykolaiv on the Black Sea.
If this is true, the timing is perfect. The Russians are in consolidation mode in the northwest and northeast, morale low and their supplies still depleted.
Additionally, there is footage of a Ukrainian airborne unit advancing past burnt out Russian tanks in the contested breakaway region of Luhansk.
There's a media black out right now. Should be more news later tonight.
2. Russian heavy bombers are up once again, targeting Ukrainian cities.
3. The Ukrainians killed another Russian general. This makes 4 Russian and 1 Chechen general in 20 days. Major General Oleg Mityaev commanded the 150th Motor Rifle Division, which is currently involved in the siege at Mariupol on the southern coast. He was the deputy commander of all Russian forces in Syria last year, and a former airborne brigade commander earlier in his career. The Azov Battalion, the far-right militia that has been operating in the Donbas break away region, has claimed credit for killing him. The Azov Battalion is part of the defense of Mariupol.
4. I'm including a photo of General Mityaev and apparently one of the honor guard at his funeral composed of airborne troops from his old brigade. Take a close look at the honor guard and let me know what it says to you.
5. US and Chinese officials met in Rome today and had what was apparently a seven hour blunt-fest over Ukraine and the Chinese sending military aid/economic aid to the Russians. The Chinese released a statement that did not condemn the Russians, but did say they respected the international order and international boundaries. Off the record, they made it clear they are not happy with what the Russians are doing. The officials on each side were: U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and senior Chinese foreign policy adviser Yang Jiechi. No real details on what emerged from the talks, but apparently the U.S. took a very hard line and threatened the Chinese with consequences if they sent aid to Russia.
6. The Russians may be planning to execute an amphibious landing along the Black Sea Coast near Odesa. They have some naval infantry and ships off shore, and earlier today ham radio operators allegedly heard the Black Sea Fleet HQ at Sevastopol send a priority flash codeword in Morse Code.
If this is the execute order for an amphibious landing is not known, but it engendered a lot of speculation that it may be. The amphibious task force has been tracked on open source sat imagery for several days. There are roughly 4,000 Russian naval infantry aboard that task force.
7. Forte 11, a US intelligence gathering drone which has been operating in theater since before the invasion, is orbiting south of the Russian amphibious task force over the Black Sea tonight.
8. Russian violence toward unarmed civilians seems to be growing. A drunk Russian soldier murdered a 10 year old girl in front of her uncle in a village about 40 miles outside of Kyiv. Additionally, I am posting this link to show an outrageous example of this uptick in direct violence, not just artillery and aerial bombing, against civilians. It is graphic and horrible. A Russian tank crew uses a main gun round to literally murders a civilian walking on the street in front of their position. As far as I can tell, he posed zero threat to them.
https://twitter.com/Ukraine.../statu...23350979833859...
9. There is an audio recording that has been released by the Ukrainians allegedly from an intercepted cell phone call of a Russian soldier calling home. He was drunk and spoke of seeing two trainloads of dead Russian troops being hauled home (another possible data point on the mobile crematorium stories). He said there were Russian generals who have committed suicide, stories of self-inflicted wounds to get out of combat, He said he was ordered to shoot Ukrainian civilians. This is all unverified.
Photos: Russian Major General Oleg Mityaev and what apparently was his honor guard from the elite Russian 11th Airborne Brigade during his memorial service.
Last thing: Thank you all for the kind words regarding these posts. They're deeply appreciated.
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