Voting and pure statistics

[AnthonyS]

So you are voting your choices are A, B, C or D (other). The entire study of probabilities by Dr. Deming and Walter Shewart after WW2 led to statistical process controls. Most of you heard about it via Six Sigma at different businesses or Kaizen ( Japanese Juran’s version). Regardless, you are looking at a random set (say a pile of M&Ms). You start counting votes or pulling M&Ms. You get A, A, A, A, A, A..... What will the next M&M or vote be? Well the chance of it being A is about 1 in 1 million at this point. With the 7th A, you have a trend that violates the concept of six sigma. This is statistical proof that the sample pool is not random.

Now in MI and WI, they reported A over 100k times in a row with zero Bs, Cs or Ds. They are working on the same crap in PA. This is completely impossible for any random dataset. The fuckery is real.

Ask Ruffdaddy to explain it to you. He knows everything about statistics. He told me once.

There probably isn’t enough computing power on Earth to calculate the statistical improbability of the fraud that is occurring.

[Nash B.]

You're only half right, though. If you have 1,000 red, 1,000 blue, 1,000 green, and 1,000 yellow M&Ms and you draw 6 reds in a row, the probability of drawing a red on the 7th draw is 994/3994, or just under 25%. The probability of having drawn 6 reds in a row doesn't affect the probability of drawing a red on the 7th draw, except that 6 reds have been taken out of the pile.

However, the odds of drawing 7 reds in a row is 1000/4000 * 999/3999 * 998/3998 * 997/3997 * 996/3996 * 995/3995 * 994/3994, which is .006%.

[Chili]

Now in MI and WI, they reported A over 100k times in a row with zero Bs, Cs or Ds. They are working on the same crap in PA. This is completely impossible for any random dataset. The fuckery is real.

How are you finding that info? Is there a source that shows how the numbers have changed with timestamps or something? Genuinely curious since you suggested people look it up in the other thread. Where can I look that up?