Brexit

[Mach1]

Wow

[davbrucas]

I'm sure we will read about Obama chastising the Brits on Facebook tomorrow.

[Strychnine]

How will Brexit result affect France, Germany and rest of Europe?



Britain’s decision to leave the EU changes the facts of life in Europe, increasing the challenges faced by the governments of France, Germany, the Netherlands and elsewhere in the continent — notably in the Nordic countries.

FT correspondents report on the new political landscape in the bloc now that Brexit is a reality, with repercussions likely to be felt far and wide.


France

The Leave vote will send shockwaves throughout France’s political mainstream parties, which fret about the probable boost it will give the resurgent far-right National Front party less than a year before presidential elections.

The anti-euro, anti-immigration party has consistently attracted the largest share of votes in the first round of local and European elections in the past two years. Its leader Marine Le Pen, who is expected to qualify for the second round of next year’s presidential election has already seized on the In-Out campaign to call for a similar referendum on French membership if she wins powers.

France has “a thousand more reasons to leave than the UK,” Ms Le Pen said on Tuesday in a televised interview.

She pointed out that, in contrast with Britain, the country is part of the eurozone and the Schengen passport free zone — two supranational innovations that have come under severe strain in recent years.

“Whatever the result, it shows the EU is decaying, that there are cracks everywhere,” Ms Le Pen said, describing Brussels as “totalitarian” and requesting to unwind it to go back to a “Europe of the nations”.

As such Eurosceptics gain prominence ahead of next year’s election, Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president who is eyeing a second run at the Elysee, has already intensified his own anti-Brussels rhetoric.

Fear of contagion at home and across the bloc is one of the big reasons why François Hollande, French president, has been adamant that there must be short-term consequences for the UK if it votes to leave, since the referendum result may tempt other countries to negotiate new terms with Brussels.

“Playing down, or minimising, the consequences would put Europe at risk,” a French diplomat said. “The principle of consequences is very important, to protect Europe.”


Germany

German officials are convinced that their country can withstand any financial shocks that may come in the next few weeks. They are also fairly confident that German business can manage the potential effects of Thursday’s vote on the complex trade relationship with the UK, Germany’s third-biggest export market.

But politics is a different story — for the EU and for Germany’s role within the union, Brexit could signal disruption for years to come.

Berlin worries particularly about anti-EU sentiment in the union’s western heartland, including France and the Netherlands. Decades of integration could be put into question.

EU officials are looking at responses aimed at rallying the remaining 27 member states and trying to revive some enthusiasm for the union. Security, foreign policy and border control have all been put under the microscope. Officials think these issues could — under the right circumstances — appeal to a public concerned about both jihadis and refugees.

But Berlin wonders who could lead such a push. German politicians ask whether Brussels is the suitable candidate to head such a campaign, given that many EU voters share Britons’ antipathy to the Euro bureaucracy. If not Brussels, member states must take the lead, and then Germany must play the central role, given its political weight.

There is a problem. Ms Merkel has tackled the four recent challenges — the global financial shock, the Greek rescue, the Ukraine conflict and the refugee crisis — by taking the lead and forcing others to follow.

This has generated intense opposition, for example in southern Europe over German-led austerity and Russian sanctions, and in eastern Europe over refugees.

Ms Merkel has shielded herself with allies. But with the UK leaving, the list of heavyweight partners shrinks. The EU is losing one of its big three states, a country with deep diplomatic and military experience, and a voice for market-oriented deals.

If Germany now starts giving orders even more than it does already, it will be more vulnerable to charges of hegemony.

But if the country stays quiet, for fear of appearing overmighty, it risks leaving a political vacuum for others to fill, notably nationalists in France and elsewhere.


The Netherlands

After Brexit comes “Nexit” according to Geert Wilders, the leader of the rightwing, anti-EU PVV party that tops the polls in the Netherlands.

“Hurrah for the Brits!”, Mr Wilders tweeted on Friday morning, in response to the UK vote. “Now it’s our turn. Time for a Dutch referendum!”

In the run-up to the vote, Mr Wilders toured newspapers and TV channels with a simple message: after the British have their say on the EU, the Dutch should have theirs.

Following the success of the Leave campaign in the UK, these calls will only grow louder, especially in the lead-up to a general election due by early next year. “A vote for the [PVV] is a vote for a referendum on a Dutch Nexit,” said Mr Wilders this week.

The Dutch government already had a headache after a referendum this year rejected an EU trade deal with Ukraine; British voters have just given them a bigger one.


Nordic states

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden have long looked up to the UK for leadership on everything from the EU and trade matters to culture and football.

Surveys suggest that Sweden and Denmark will be among the countries most negatively affected by Brexit. As a result, such countries are likely to rush to reaffirm their place within the EU, as is Finland, their Nordic neighbour. “I imagine the prime minister will double down on support for the EU straightaway, not least to reduce the threat from populists,” says one senior Danish government official.

Populist parties such as the Danish People’s party and the Sweden Democrats are likely to try to exploit the Brexit vote for their own ends. Although polls show a strong majority in favour of the EU in Sweden and a smaller one in Denmark, politicians in both countries expect the public to wonder why Britain got a vote when they have not. “It really could be a Pandora’s box,” says one Finnish minister.

More difficult to read is the reaction of the two non-EU Nordic countries, Norway and Iceland. Norway’s government has strongly warned the UK not to follow it into the European Economic Area in which Oslo has access to the EU single market but has to pay large amounts and accept all EU immigrants.

But Norway and Iceland could in the case of a Brexit gain a new heavyweight member of the EEA. One Norwegian minister is amused by the prospect: “It’s odd enough when I, from a country of 5m people, have to go to negotiate with my colleague from Liechtenstein [the third member of the EEA]. Just think how it would be for Britain?”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/2b75023a-371d-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4CTGdTeMs

[abecx]

Thanks Greece.

[Strychnine]

Thanks Greece.

You know, the other day I listened to an interview with George Papandreou, former Greece PM when all that shit went down. It was a TED talk actually - you should go listen to it. Very human... he basically said they were turned into the whipping post of the EU after everyone had problems which is exactly why he sent the EU conditions to a referendum in 2011 for his people to vote on rather than making a unilateral decision... in the end that referendum was cancelled and he was ousted from the party.


Pretty fucking powerful to hear


transcript: https://www.ted.com/talks/george_pap...pt?language=en

Exceprts:

Now, today, our democracies are again facing a moment of truth. Let me tell you a story. Sunday evening, Brussels, April 2010. I'm sitting with my counterparts in the European Union. I had just been elected prime minister, but I had the unhappy privilege of revealing a truth that our deficit was not 6 percent, as had been officially reported only a few days earlier before the elections by the previous government, but actually 15.6 percent. But the deficit was only the symptom of much deeper problems that Greece was facing, and I had been elected on a mandate, a mission, actually, to tackle these problems, whether it was lack of transparency and accountability in governance, or whether it was a clientelistic state offering favors to the powerful -- tax avoidance abetted and aided by a global tax evasion system, politics and media captured by special interests. But despite our electoral mandate, the markets mistrusted us. Our borrowing costs were skyrocketing, and we were facing possible default.

So I went to Brussels on a mission to make the case for a united European response, one that would calm the markets and give us the time to make the necessary reforms. But time we didn't get. Picture yourselves around the table in Brussels. Negotiations are difficult, the tensions are high, progress is slow, and then, 10 minutes to 2, a prime minister shouts out, "We have to finish in 10 minutes."

I said, "Why? These are important decisions. Let's deliberate a little bit longer."

Another prime minister comes in and says, "No, we have to have an agreement now, because in 10 minutes, the markets are opening up in Japan, and there will be havoc in the global economy."

We quickly came to a decision in those 10 minutes. This time it was not the military, but the markets, that put a gun to our collective heads. What followed were the most difficult decisions in my life, painful to me, painful to my countrymen, imposing cuts, austerity, often on those not to blame for the crisis. With these sacrifices, Greece did avoid bankruptcy and the eurozone avoided a collapse.

Greece, yes, triggered the Euro crisis, and some people blame me for pulling the trigger. But I think today that most would agree that Greece was only a symptom of much deeper structural problems in the eurozone, vulnerabilities in the wider global economic system, vulnerabilities of our democracies. Our democracies are trapped by systems too big to fail, or, more accurately, too big to control. Our democracies are weakened in the global economy with players that can evade laws, evade taxes, evade environmental or labor standards. Our democracies are undermined by the growing inequality and the growing concentration of power and wealth, lobbies, corruption, the speed of the markets or simply the fact that we sometimes fear an impending disaster, have constrained our democracies, and they have constrained our capacity to imagine and actually use the potential, your potential, in finding solutions.

So let's try something else. Let's see how we can bring people back to the process. Let's throw democracy at the problem. Again, the Ancient Greeks, with all their shortcomings, believed in the wisdom of the crowd at their best moments. In people we trust. Democracy could not work without the citizens deliberating, debating, taking on public responsibilities for public affairs. Average citizens often were chosen for citizen juries to decide on critical matters of the day. Science, theater, research, philosophy, games of the mind and the body, they were daily exercises. Actually they were an education for participation, for the potential, for growing the potential of our citizens.

And those who shunned politics, well, they were idiots. You see, in Ancient Greece, in ancient Athens, that term originated there. "Idiot" comes from the root "idio," oneself. A person who is self-centered, secluded, excluded, someone who doesn't participate or even examine public affairs. And participation took place in the agora, the agora having two meanings, both a marketplace and a place where there was political deliberation. You see, markets and politics then were one, unified, accessible, transparent, because they gave power to the people. They serve the demos, democracy. Above government, above markets was the direct rule of the people.

Today we have globalized the markets but we have not globalized our democratic institutions. So our politicians are limited to local politics, while our citizens, even though they see a great potential, are prey to forces beyond their control.

Now, some might accuse me of being naive, putting my faith in the power and the wisdom of the people. Well, after decades in politics, I am also a pragmatist. Believe me, I have been, I am, part of today's political system, and I know things must change. We must revive politics as the power to imagine, reimagine, and redesign for a better world.

[abecx]

Pretty fucking powerful to hear

I hate being negative, I believe in people but more on an individual level. These politicians whine so much and wrap their agendas in rallying and euphoric words that it makes it easy to understand why WW2 started in the first place. I wont pretend to know all the nuances of politics, but from what I could see and read, Greece had a new excuse each time, and each one blamed the previous administrations, or the system is setup for Greece to fail ( banks loans honestly set you up to fail anyway, but Greece never truly budgeted ). They pass the blame and create us vs them situations to get out of addressing the issue and accepting fallacy. That is politics 101, at least to me. I'm just rambling, but if UK is out, I have a feeling Switzerland isn't fair behind as they keep limiting how much currency people can convert, and if they leave I think it could destabilize that entire region.

[KBScobravert]

I'm glad I was wrong. It's great to see them leave. Our Brit here us pretty fuckin happy.

Who's next? All the while, Turkey is looking to join, I want to see them standing there by themselves in the EU in the end.

[prostock1]

Brexit

We'll, bye


Is the Texit next ?

[LANTIRN]

I thought for sure it would fail. I thought Britain was very pro socialism and assumed most loved the socialist EU. Good on them for standing against that crap. I need to ask the Brit I work with what he thinks.

[sc281]

Sjw's reacting to BREXIT

[LANTIRN]

What? How is voting out of the EU racist? The majority of the EU is European Caucasian.

[46Tbird]

What? How is voting out of the EU racist? The majority of the EU is European Caucasian.

Because old, white, uneducated racists are the last politically-correct scapegoat.

They get to use it even when it makes no fucking sense at all.

[CWO]

so is this a "clear out your 401k" moment?

[46Tbird]

Nope. Yesterday was.

[CWO]