The Anti-Denny Bet has been laid today...

[OldGuysRule]

Citigroup Jan 2013 7.50 calls... 500 contracts @ .29... $14.5K. May add on to it depending on price action.

The world is either going to crater and Denny is right or Citigroup will be trading in around $15 and I'll be sitting on about $375K on a $14.5K bet... or $0.

Let the two year war begin!

[Denny]

HAHAHA!!! There is a reason that sounds real good. I wish you luck on that one, I truly do, but Citi? CITI?!?! I'm still trying to find all those people that tried to take advantage of some cheap Lehman Brothers (LEH). They got quiet real quick.

It's on like Donkey Kong! I wonder how well that will do against 500oz of silver by then. We will wait and see.

[mustangguy289]

Is I stoopid if none of this makes any sense to me? lol

[momo]

yikes @ 14 grand!

[Denny]

yikes @ 14 grand!

Gotta pay to play, playa!

I've never heard a success story that didn't involve sacrifice and risk.

[Denny]

Is I stoopid if none of this makes any sense to me? lol

Pro-banker bullshit vs. real assets

[YALE]

Gotta pay to play, playa!

I've never heard a success story that didn't involve sacrifice and risk.

The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.

[momo]

Gotta pay to play, playa!

I've never heard a success story that didn't involve sacrifice and risk.

i played $500 on some ford jan 2012 calls and thought i was ballin.

[Denny]

Eric probably pulled it out of his couch.

[OldGuysRule]

HAHAHA!!! There is a reason that sounds real good. I wish you luck on that one, I truly do, but Citi? CITI?!?! I'm still trying to find all those people that tried to take advantage of some cheap Lehman Brothers (LEH). They got quiet real quick.

It's on like Donkey Kong! I wonder how well that will do against 500oz of silver by then. We will wait and see.

It is actually a decent bet (ok, in my mind at least!) but it is an all or nothing bet. If the economy pulls itself up this year Citi will be north of 10 in Jan 2013. The probably have the best presence internationally of the majors and certainly a better presence in the emerging markets. I think once the banks return to dividend payment and an increasing dividend payment the stocks will get a big boost. I'm giving 7 quarters to let it play out.

A 100 shares of city at the moment would cost you $483. A bet that Citi will be $8.00 or better by Jan 2013 costs $31.95 (position+commission) for a 100 share position.

If we stagnate my guess is the 7.50 calls still have some value leading up to 2013 so it isn't a total loss and I'll take a hit.

If the economy take another dump... I'm screwed not just on this but pretty much everything else.

The LEAPS are far enough out they don't get whipshawed too much like the close expiration months so there is some short term stability in the position while we watch and see if the economy clears up.

Momo it is all relative. I'm going to be 48 this year. I've had a little time to save some money.

[mr tinfoil hat]

The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.

I like that one. TY

[YALE]

I like that one. TY

I didn't figure that out or anything. I stole it.

[Denny]

It is actually a decent bet (ok, in my mind at least!) but it is an all or nothing bet. If the economy pulls itself up this year Citi will be north of 10 in Jan 2013. The probably have the best presence internationally of the majors and certainly a better presence in the emerging markets. I think once the banks return to dividend payment and an increasing dividend payment the stocks will get a big boost. I'm giving 7 quarters to let it play out.

A 100 shares of city at the moment would cost you $483. A bet that Citi will be $8.00 or better by Jan 2013 costs $31.95 (position+commission) for a 100 share position.

If we stagnate my guess is the 7.50 calls still have some value leading up to 2013 so it isn't a total loss and I'll take a hit.

If the economy take another dump... I'm screwed not just on this but pretty much everything else.

The LEAPS are far enough out they don't get whipshawed too much like the close expiration months so there is some short term stability in the position while we watch and see if the economy clears up.

Momo it is all relative. I'm going to be 48 this year. I've had a little time to save some money.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking your bet. Citi is by far the least of the majors with egg on its face right now. That would be my bet if I was drinking from the banker Kool-Aid too.

[Broncojohnny]

Jesus you are old.

I don't follow Citi all that well although I do have some shares I bought for next to nothing and have considered buying more just as a gamble. But didn't Pandit pretty much come out and say, not too long ago, that they won't make any significant profit or raise the dividend until 2012? In my mind that cuts your two years for something to happen down to one year.

Good luck on the options, it will be a nice play if you are correct, I don't think it is too far fetched to think they would be above that price.

[mr tinfoil hat]

I didn't figure that out or anything. I stole it.

For sure, as I will now too.