The Anti-Denny Bet has been laid today...

[Denny]

All your banks are belong to us!

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/23/business/main20035506.shtml

Amazing how the big banks are "recovering" better than anyone else.

[SMEGMA STENCH]

Perhaps we should squash them all into little banks instead of big banks.

[Denny]

Ol' Eric might be onto something...

Citigroup Stock Split: Bank Announces 1-For-10 Reverse Stock Split, Boosts Dividend (quarterly .01 per share).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/21/citigroup-stock-split_n_838330.html

Could backfire as well, but it will get pension funds and mutual funds involved now.

[jayjohnson600]

But how will the leap hold up? I'm on the other side of Denny's reasons.

My thought it that the rev-split will give the strong handed shorts a solid footing to
initiating a program. Don't forget that the high volume traders will abandon this stock.
So, the market thinning and C attracting shorts, doesnt' bode well in the short term.
I don't think the institutional longs will have enough force to balance the negatives in the
near team around the rev-split, and C is nowhere near the cream of banks.
They sold off their jewels at bargain prices to survive in name.

I like the leap price point sure, the Jan 13 showed the big price break in option cost.
But it's too unknown to drive in a stake. This is gambling, mostly on the economy.
C has a compelling global presence but...
Also need to know how much of the housing debacle is still on the Citi books.
(knowing the schedule of mortgage resets also, the leap is just after the last of the bulk
mortgage resets occur, but still in the storm the housing debacle.)

and don't forget a 14.5k stake today on a bet for Jan 13, costs more than 14.5k
in future value. Factor in inflation and opportunity cost, say 17k.
This is also a bet that things pick up sooner than you hope, and you can sell
it prior to expiry if there's a bump somewhere inbetween now and then.

rev-splitting for the leap puts the price above the psychological sweet spot.
I would have to take the other side of the Jan 2013 7.50 call, I would rather put money
elsewhere. And don't forget that the world doesn't have to crater and Denny doesn't have
to be right. I don't like the way the US debt(and many other countries) is shaping at this
point.
The economy can chug along for many years grinding it's gears going not much of anywhere.
It has happened before in many places, many times.

All IMHO, your mileage may vary.

Jay Johnson

[slow99]

But how will the leap hold up? I'm on the other side of Denny's reasons.

My thought it that the rev-split will give the strong handed shorts a solid footing to
initiating a program. Don't forget that the high volume traders will abandon this stock.
So, the market thinning and C attracting shorts, doesnt' bode well in the short term.
I don't think the institutional longs will have enough force to balance the negatives in the
near team around the rev-split, and C is nowhere near the cream of banks.
They sold off their jewels at bargain prices to survive in name.

I like the leap price point sure, the Jan 13 showed the big price break in option cost.
But it's too unknown to drive in a stake. This is gambling, mostly on the economy.
C has a compelling global presence but...
Also need to know how much of the housing debacle is still on the Citi books.
(knowing the schedule of mortgage resets also, the leap is just after the last of the bulk
mortgage resets occur, but still in the storm the housing debacle.)

and don't forget a 14.5k stake today on a bet for Jan 13, costs more than 14.5k
in future value. Factor in inflation and opportunity cost, say 17k.
This is also a bet that things pick up sooner than you hope, and you can sell
it prior to expiry if there's a bump somewhere inbetween now and then.

rev-splitting for the leap puts the price above the psychological sweet spot.
I would have to take the other side of the Jan 2013 7.50 call, I would rather put money
elsewhere. And don't forget that the world doesn't have to crater and Denny doesn't have
to be right. I don't like the way the US debt(and many other countries) is shaping at this
point.
The economy can chug along for many years grinding it's gears going not much of anywhere.
It has happened before in many places, many times.

All IMHO, your mileage may vary.

Jay Johnson

I'm trying to read this; I just can't bring myself to do it.

[aggie97]

The best major bank is probably Wells Fargo from the point of view of financial strength.

got any insights on Comerica? Trying to figure out if they are strong enough to foreclose on that little prospect I was looking at in about 21 days!

[jayjohnson600]

I'm trying to read this; I just can't bring myself to do it.

This too?

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11111015/1/citigroup-shares-should-be-avoided-analyst.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

and now this one also:

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/05/09/citi-after-the-reverse-split-easier-to-short/?mod=yahoobarrons

Interesting, it's the same stuff I posted 1.5months ago in this thread, and stuff people
can't bring themselves to read.

...and that 29cent leap was trading at 8cents Friday and now after the rev-split 1cent
(or 10cents pre-rev-split). Glad I took the other side of that.

How do you turn $14.5K in Citi leaps into $5k in 3months?

Easy. Start by not reading.
I'm not super-trader that's for sure, but I know enough to avoid self-destruction.
I hope the position was vacated already, but the initial post indicated that he would ride
it to expiration.

Jay Johnson

[Broncojohnny]

I see your point but it isn't even close to January 2013 yet.

[jayjohnson600]

Sure, but now the bet is locked into "Keep hope alive", and almost no liquidity.
I see that 500 were traded this morning, maybe he doubled down

Jay Johnson

[Denny]

LOL! I'm glad I pulled the trigger early on Friday (or had Leslie do it) on my little put. It might still hit $30 or at least get closer, but I turned a pretty good gain from 48.17 to 34.80. Silver is up a little today, but there is another margin hike scheduled for close today. With the Hong Kong starting the HKMEX on the 18th, I'm sure futures traders will exercise a little movement.

Heh... made my own little anti-Denny bet.

[Denny]

Has anyone heard from Eric lately?

[Broncojohnny]

Thought I would bring this up for a refresh round. It isn't looking good for the original position taken in this thread. I just don't think it will get to the $75 it would take for the contracts to be in the money.

Although all the banks are coming back now that the hedgies don't hate them any more.

[Denny]

Ya, it would still have to more than double by Jan. I wonder what Eric is doing? Haven't heard from him in forever