25 year depression coming soon

[Strychnine]

I'm subscribing to a portion of the Russia theory. .

larger version here: http://i.imgur.com/OFafets.jpg

[Broncojohnny]

I don't think there is any way in hell you see 3.8% GDP growth in 2015.

My problem with a lot of these predictions about the low cost of oil is the fact that the situation we are in is unprecedented in modern times. Interest rates being at zero for so long has skewed everything completely out of whack when it comes to risk vs reward. Instead of capital investment and growth, companies have been buying back shares, there is no job growth besides O&G. The only other jobs are ones where you have to say "do you want fries with that?". Once O&G goes away, the economy is fucked.

[YALE]

I don't think there is any way in hell you see 3.8% GDP growth in 2015.

My problem with a lot of these predictions about the low cost of oil is the fact that the situation we are in is unprecedented in modern times. Interest rates being at zero for so long has skewed everything completely out of whack when it comes to risk vs reward. Instead of capital investment and growth, companies have been buying back shares, there is no job growth besides O&G. The only other jobs are ones where you have to say "do you want fries with that?". Once O&G goes away, the economy is fucked.

But if Saudi Arabia bows out, and lets us be the swing producer, we'll be in good shape for the short term.

[Ruffdaddy]

But if Saudi Arabia bows out, and lets us be the swing producer, we'll be in good shape for the short term.

I don't see that happening. I think a war or unrest is more likely to bump prices like always.

Saudi does a massive amount of well intervention so that may skew their cost of production higher than typically published . They have cost effectively maintained wells for a long time...but that only goes so far and may turn into more drilling and major work overs.

I honestly think no one knows at all what to expect. Maybe Russia will start shit.

[Ruffdaddy]

I don't think there is any way in hell you see 3.8% GDP growth in 2015.

My problem with a lot of these predictions about the low cost of oil is the fact that the situation we are in is unprecedented in modern times. Interest rates being at zero for so long has skewed everything completely out of whack when it comes to risk vs reward. Instead of capital investment and growth, companies have been buying back shares, there is no job growth besides O&G. The only other jobs are ones where you have to say "do you want fries with that?". Once O&G goes away, the economy is fucked.

Low prices cure low prices as they say...so I don't see a longterm shale decline. Those wells don't last longame at all. 1 year of decline can send prices surging again.

But again...I don't think anyone knows what will happen. Layoffs for sure I'd assume in near term.

[YALE]

I don't see that happening. I think a war or unrest is more likely to bump prices like always.

Saudi does a massive amount of well intervention so that may skew their cost of production higher than typically published . They have cost effectively maintained wells for a long time...but that only goes so far and may turn into more drilling and major work overs.

I honestly think no one knows at all what to expect. Maybe Russia will start shit.

The horses might be out of the barn, there.

[slow99]

It's starting!

[inline 6]

What is?

[Denny]

You don't know? You haven't heard?

[Cooter]

[Denny]

Thank you!!!

[Broncojohnny]

What is?

It

[Strychnine]

FWIW, Joe Barton (TX congressman and senior republican on the House Energy and Commerce Committee) is introducing legislation today to lift the crude oil export ban.

[Denny]

It'll be symbolic, if anything. Your president will kill it.

[Broncojohnny]

I saw the first article today of what will be many I am sure, about how the Fed is going to bail out the energy sector. I had to laugh.