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Interesting and a bit worrying....
China’s stealth jet test hints at rogue military
A recent high-level meeting suggests President Hu knew nothing about the J-20 test flight, although it could be elaborate diplomatic theatre
By Jonathan Manthorpe, Vancouver Sun columnist
For some time, U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates has wondered aloud whether China’s military is still under the firm control of the country’s civilian leadership.
It’s a logical question as, for several years, senior officers in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have openly voiced hostility to the U.S. and drawn scenarios of military competition and confrontation in Asia, even as the civilian leadership in Beijing and Washington attempted to bridge differences.
Gates got some sort of answer to his question on Tuesday when the PLA air force held a test flight for its recently revealed new J-20 radar-evading stealth fighter-bomber just hours before the Defence Secretary was to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing.
It was not just that the timing of the test flight of the J-20, whose existence indicates that advances in Chinese military technology are well ahead of western intelligence estimates, was a clear snub to Gates and his mission to improve mutual military openness.
What stood out is that, according to U.S. officials at the meeting, it was evident President Hu and the other civilian political leaders at the meeting knew nothing about the test flight when Gates raised the issue.
It is possible, of course, that the Americans were treated to an elaborate piece of diplomatic theatre.
One of Hu’s key positions is the chairmanship of the Communist party’s military commission. The party and the PLA may be playing a good-cop, bad-cop strategy, keeping the image of the civilian leaders clean while the military indulges in patriotic zealotry.
At the very least, there will be a strong imperative among Chinese officials this week to insulate Hu from any embarrassments aimed at Gates during his visit.
Hu is scheduled to go to Washington next week for talks with President Barack Obama. The last thing Beijing will want is any reciprocal moves by the Americans that taint Hu’s image at home or in the wider world.
Gates’ mission to Beijing is an effort by Washington to smooth the road for Hu’s visit by attempting to revive military-to-military communications. The PLA cut these links aimed at fostering understanding of each others strategic objectives over a year ago in response to Washington’s $6.4 billion sales of defensive arms to Taiwan, which China claims to own and threatens to invade.
One of Gates’ objectives in attempting to renew the formal military communications is to get a handle on the power relationship between the PLA and the civilian leadership.
“I’ve had concerns about this over time,” Gates told reporters after his meeting on Tuesday with Hu.
“And frankly, that is one of the reasons I attach importance to a dialogue between the two sides that includes both civilian and military.”
Quite apart from the provocative first test flight of the J-20, Gates got little other return for his efforts. The Chinese only agreed to establish a working group to talk about future talks.
Among observers and analysts in Asia, there is a growing view that Beijing suspects that Obama is a one-term president — unless he benefits from any gift of his Republican opponents’ folly — and there is little point in investing too much good will with this administration until its prospects become more clear.
Huang Jing, an expert on China’s military and professor at Singapore’s National University, was reported on Monday as saying “the Chinese are playing tai chi [the martial art of self-defence] with the Americans. They want to wait until the dust settles down in Washington.”
Ding Xueliang, professor of foreign affairs at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said he has “no confidence at all” that Gates will get the military openness he wants.
“I don’t think he can get the real substantial things from the Chinese military.”
And Paule Haenle, director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing and a former national security adviser to President George W Bush, said “I don’t think the Chinese have made any strategic decision that they are going to now work closer with the U.S.”
China’s stealth jet test hints at rogue military
A recent high-level meeting suggests President Hu knew nothing about the J-20 test flight, although it could be elaborate diplomatic theatre
By Jonathan Manthorpe, Vancouver Sun columnist
For some time, U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates has wondered aloud whether China’s military is still under the firm control of the country’s civilian leadership.
It’s a logical question as, for several years, senior officers in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have openly voiced hostility to the U.S. and drawn scenarios of military competition and confrontation in Asia, even as the civilian leadership in Beijing and Washington attempted to bridge differences.
Gates got some sort of answer to his question on Tuesday when the PLA air force held a test flight for its recently revealed new J-20 radar-evading stealth fighter-bomber just hours before the Defence Secretary was to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing.
It was not just that the timing of the test flight of the J-20, whose existence indicates that advances in Chinese military technology are well ahead of western intelligence estimates, was a clear snub to Gates and his mission to improve mutual military openness.
What stood out is that, according to U.S. officials at the meeting, it was evident President Hu and the other civilian political leaders at the meeting knew nothing about the test flight when Gates raised the issue.
It is possible, of course, that the Americans were treated to an elaborate piece of diplomatic theatre.
One of Hu’s key positions is the chairmanship of the Communist party’s military commission. The party and the PLA may be playing a good-cop, bad-cop strategy, keeping the image of the civilian leaders clean while the military indulges in patriotic zealotry.
At the very least, there will be a strong imperative among Chinese officials this week to insulate Hu from any embarrassments aimed at Gates during his visit.
Hu is scheduled to go to Washington next week for talks with President Barack Obama. The last thing Beijing will want is any reciprocal moves by the Americans that taint Hu’s image at home or in the wider world.
Gates’ mission to Beijing is an effort by Washington to smooth the road for Hu’s visit by attempting to revive military-to-military communications. The PLA cut these links aimed at fostering understanding of each others strategic objectives over a year ago in response to Washington’s $6.4 billion sales of defensive arms to Taiwan, which China claims to own and threatens to invade.
One of Gates’ objectives in attempting to renew the formal military communications is to get a handle on the power relationship between the PLA and the civilian leadership.
“I’ve had concerns about this over time,” Gates told reporters after his meeting on Tuesday with Hu.
“And frankly, that is one of the reasons I attach importance to a dialogue between the two sides that includes both civilian and military.”
Quite apart from the provocative first test flight of the J-20, Gates got little other return for his efforts. The Chinese only agreed to establish a working group to talk about future talks.
Among observers and analysts in Asia, there is a growing view that Beijing suspects that Obama is a one-term president — unless he benefits from any gift of his Republican opponents’ folly — and there is little point in investing too much good will with this administration until its prospects become more clear.
Huang Jing, an expert on China’s military and professor at Singapore’s National University, was reported on Monday as saying “the Chinese are playing tai chi [the martial art of self-defence] with the Americans. They want to wait until the dust settles down in Washington.”
Ding Xueliang, professor of foreign affairs at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said he has “no confidence at all” that Gates will get the military openness he wants.
“I don’t think he can get the real substantial things from the Chinese military.”
And Paule Haenle, director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing and a former national security adviser to President George W Bush, said “I don’t think the Chinese have made any strategic decision that they are going to now work closer with the U.S.”
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