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  • Romney pulling ahead?

    Mitt Romney eked out bragging rights in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, claiming 49 percent support among likely voters vs. Barack Obama's 48 percent - Romney's first numerical edge, however slight, since before the party conventions.

    Slight is the word: Taking it to two decimals (for illustration only - not to imply false precision), Romney has 48.51 percent support, Obama 48.44 percent - about as close as it can be. Still, with rounding, Romney's 1-point numerical edge is his first since an ABC/Post poll Aug. 25.

    Underscoring Obama's challenges two weeks before Election Day, his job approval rating now stands at 49 percent among likely voters, its lowest since late September (48 percent) and trouble for him to the extent that the election is a referendum on his performance. Among previous incumbents, George W. Bush dipped to 50 percent among likely voters - but not lower - in the fall of his successful re-election campaign.

    Moreover, likely voters now divide by 50-45 percent, Romney-Obama, in whom they trust to do a better job handling the economy. The 5-point gap, while not statistically significant, is its widest, again, since Aug. 25.
    Obama, however, retains pushback on the question of empathy, another significant independent predictor of vote preferences. He leads Romney by 7 points, 51-44 percent, in who better understands the economic problems people in this country are having.

    ENTHUSIASM and INTEREST - Interviews for the latest ABC/Post daily tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, were conducted Friday through Monday, almost entirely before the candidates' final debate Monday night. While debates rarely directly impact vote preferences, they can more subtly influence campaign dynamics, as with Romney's gains in some underlying measures, such as strong enthusiasm among his backers, after the first debate Oct. 3.

    Today Romney and Obama are precisely matched on that measure: Sixty-two percent of each candidate's supporters say they're "very" enthusiastic about their choice. That's a change from the last two presidential elections, in which the eventual winners, Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2004, clearly led their opponents in strong enthusiasm at this point. It's one reason the race this year is so close.

    In a telling comparison, Obama's strong enthusiasm is a scant 3 points lower than it was two weeks before Election Day in 2008, but Romney's is a broad 24 points higher than McCain's four years ago. Compared to 2004, strong enthusiasm for Obama and Romney is similar to Bush's (60 percent), and well ahead of John Kerry's (50 percent) at about this time in their contest.
    Another measure, interest in the race, has risen steadily: On Sept. 9, just after the party conventions, 51 percent of likely voters said they were following the election very closely. That's now risen to 64 percent, precisely the same as at this point in 2008.

    GROUPS - With his overall support matching his previous high in late August, Romney's at new numerical highs in some individual groups - among "very" conservative likely voters, with 92 percent support; among married men, with 64 percent; and among seniors, with 57 percent.

    Obama, for his part, retains strength in core Democratic groups, including a new high among liberals, 90 percent; as well as 93 percent support from blacks and seven in 10 among Hispanics. At 62 percent, his support among young adults, under age 30, rivals Romney's among seniors; the question is the extent to which young voters turn out.

    Finally, if enthusiasm is a far closer call now than in 2008, so are early voting intentions. In ABC/Post polling four years ago, Obama won likely voters who said they voted early by a wide 18 points. Today, by contrast, among the 33 percent who say they will vote early (or already have done so), the contest is essentially tied, 50-48 percent, Obama-Romney.

    Obama's difficulties compared with 2008 appear in another way: Among people who say they supported him four years ago, 85 percent still are doing so, but 12 percent say they'll switch to the Republican. Among McCain voters, by contrast, Romney's retaining 96 percent support.

    METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 19-22, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,382 likely voters, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including design effect. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
    Partisan divisions in this survey, Democrats-Republicans-independents, are 34-29-32 percent among likely voters. Partisan divisions in the 2008 exit poll were 39-32-29 percent.

  • #2
    Notice the "34-29-32" numbers on the sampling? Dems-Reps-Ind. Romney's lead is actually larger than what's stated.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Vertnut View Post
      Notice the "34-29-32" numbers on the sampling? Dems-Reps-Ind. Romney's lead is actually larger than what's stated.


      Interesting point. I'm starting to grow dangerously optimistic.

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      • #4
        Yeah, but look for Obama to pull an October surprise to catch the lead. Libya suspects bombed, voter fraud, etc.. I don't put ANYTHING past this corrupt administration.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Trip McNeely View Post
          Yeah, but look for Obama to pull an October surprise to catch the lead. Libya suspects bombed, voter fraud, etc.. I don't put ANYTHING past this corrupt administration.
          Of course anything is possible. Maybe Trump will spring a nice surprise on everyone tomorrow? ;-)

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by talisman View Post
            Interesting point. I'm starting to grow dangerously optimistic.
            They've been jacking with those polls for 6 months. I've posted several times that those polls are not to be trusted. Even Rasmussen and Gallup are afraid of the administration. The Barry even had Holder file a lawsuit against Gallup through the DOJ.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by talisman View Post
              Interesting point. I'm starting to grow dangerously optimistic.
              bc you're not a middle classer? oh ok.
              THE BAD HOMBRE

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by naynay View Post
                bc you're not a middle classer? oh ok.


                You can't troll me, Rodney. Keep on truckin'.

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                • #9
                  Lets hope he makes it in office. Democrats didnt do shit the past 4 years but put us in bigger debt
                  GOD BLESS TEXAS
                  August Landscaping
                  214-779-7278
                  Seb's high class.
                  He'll mow your grass.
                  He'll kick your ass.
                  And while his kidney stones pass,
                  He'll piss in a glass!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I'm going Romney becuase he's white.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Cannon View Post
                      I'm going Romney becuase he's white.
                      Wanna see our suprised face?
                      Originally posted by Nash B.
                      Damn, man. Sorry to hear that. If it'll cheer you up, Geor swallows. And even if it doesn't cheer you up, it cheers him up.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Wicked98Snake View Post
                        Wanna see our suprised face?
                        You shouldn't be surprised, I'm approaching my presidential decision with the same mindset the black folks share.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Cannon View Post
                          You shouldn't be surprised, I'm approaching my presidential decision with the same mindset the black folks share.
                          I'm not sure if you watched Hannity after this last debate, but he had Frank Luntz on with his focus group consisting of "undecided voters." He asked if they thought that Romney would be stronger on the economy. Everybody raised their hand in agreement. His next question was if Obama would be stronger on foreign policy. Again, everyone raised their hand.

                          The only two people not to raise their hand on the first question, about Romney and how he would be on the economy and the first to shoot their hand ten feet in the air over the question about Obama were both colored folks. I rewound it a few times and laughed and muttered "undecided, my ass."
                          How do we forget ourselves? How do we forget our minds?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Geor! View Post
                            I'm not sure if you watched Hannity after this last debate, but he had Frank Luntz on with his focus group consisting of "undecided voters." He asked if they thought that Romney would be stronger on the economy. Everybody raised their hand in agreement. His next question was if Obama would be stronger on foreign policy. Again, everyone raised their hand.

                            The only two people not to raise their hand on the first question, about Romney and how he would be on the economy and the first to shoot their hand ten feet in the air over the question about Obama were both colored folks. I rewound it a few times and laughed and muttered "undecided, my ass."
                            I worked late last night but I have it recorded.

                            You might want to watch out sir, you could be labeled a racist with a couple more comments like that.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by talisman View Post
                              Interesting point. I'm starting to grow dangerously optimistic.
                              I think it will be just like the recall vote in WI, the polls all called it close. Turns out s Brown won by a larger margin than the original election.
                              But when they closed the curtains they did the right thing. Be hard to be a life long dem and have to come out and say your voting for the other side. When the curtains closes non one knows.

                              Comment

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