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42 Straight Months of Stupidly Optimistic Official Predictions About Economic Recovery
Once a month quotes from the Obama administration and its media flunkies about how the economy will be booming any minute now.
Since 2007, official Washington has been desperately proclaiming that economic recovery is right around the corner.
For those of us who have been saying all along that none of the economic interventions since 2007 would revive the economy—not the rescue of Bear Stearns and other financial institutions; not the Troubled Asset Relief Program; not the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act; not Quantitative Easings I, II, and III; not the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; not Cash for Clunkers or Solyndra or the bailouts of Chrysler and General Motors—the cavalcade of stupid, wrongheaded, fantastical economic analysis coming out of official Washington and its media toadies in recent years would be hilarious if it was not so infuriating.
The granddaddy of these economic inanities is Federal Reserve Bank chairman Ben Bernanke's March 2009 declaration that he could see economic "green shoots":
With the benefit of hindsight it's easy to laugh at Bernanke, but the stupid keeps coming and it stopped being funny a long time ago.
Trillions of dollars have been spent on monetary expansion and economic recovery since the beginning of the Obama administration. At least a trillion had already been spent before President Barack Obama was sworn in.
Throughout that period, headline unemployment has exceeded predictions every single month, growing from 7.3 percent to 8.2 percent (and topping 10 percent during the period when the Recovery Act's purported benefits were at their peak). Labor force non-participation (that is, work-eligible Americans who have left the workforce entirely and now are not even counted in unemployment statistics) has climbed from 34.3 percent to 36.2 percent. Contrary to both Keynesian and monetary theory, this period of flat growth has been accompanied by pronounced Consumer Price Index inflation that has robbed each of your dollars of 10 percent of their value since 2007.
Here's a far-from-exhaustive list (we could have filled every month's quota using nothing but gaffes from Vice President Joe Biden) of stupid, insane, spectacularly wrong statements from Obama's ever-shrinking brain trust, with a sprinkling of mots justes from the commentariat.
One quote per month, followed by that month's rate of U-3 unemployment and labor force non-participation:
January 10, 2009: Council of Economic Advisers Chair-designate Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, economic advisor to Vice President-Elect Joe Biden: "As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical (stimulus) package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan." (Unemployment 7.8 percent, labor force non-participation 34.3 percent)
February 25, 2009: Vice President Joe Biden: "We have an opportunity to get the nation back to work and back on its feet....And we have to do it right." (8.3 percent, 34.3 percent)
March 15, 2009: Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke: "We'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year." (8.7 percent, 34.4 percent)
April 14, 2009: President Barack Obama: "[W]e are beginning to see glimmers of hope." (8.9 percent, 34.4 percent)
May 18, 2009: CNNMoney: "Job recovery may be on the way." (9.4 percent, 34.3 percent)
Once a month quotes from the Obama administration and its media flunkies about how the economy will be booming any minute now.
Since 2007, official Washington has been desperately proclaiming that economic recovery is right around the corner.
For those of us who have been saying all along that none of the economic interventions since 2007 would revive the economy—not the rescue of Bear Stearns and other financial institutions; not the Troubled Asset Relief Program; not the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act; not Quantitative Easings I, II, and III; not the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; not Cash for Clunkers or Solyndra or the bailouts of Chrysler and General Motors—the cavalcade of stupid, wrongheaded, fantastical economic analysis coming out of official Washington and its media toadies in recent years would be hilarious if it was not so infuriating.
The granddaddy of these economic inanities is Federal Reserve Bank chairman Ben Bernanke's March 2009 declaration that he could see economic "green shoots":
I think as those green shoots begin to appear in different markets and as some confidence begins to come back, that will begin the positive dynamic that brings our economy back.
Trillions of dollars have been spent on monetary expansion and economic recovery since the beginning of the Obama administration. At least a trillion had already been spent before President Barack Obama was sworn in.
Throughout that period, headline unemployment has exceeded predictions every single month, growing from 7.3 percent to 8.2 percent (and topping 10 percent during the period when the Recovery Act's purported benefits were at their peak). Labor force non-participation (that is, work-eligible Americans who have left the workforce entirely and now are not even counted in unemployment statistics) has climbed from 34.3 percent to 36.2 percent. Contrary to both Keynesian and monetary theory, this period of flat growth has been accompanied by pronounced Consumer Price Index inflation that has robbed each of your dollars of 10 percent of their value since 2007.
Here's a far-from-exhaustive list (we could have filled every month's quota using nothing but gaffes from Vice President Joe Biden) of stupid, insane, spectacularly wrong statements from Obama's ever-shrinking brain trust, with a sprinkling of mots justes from the commentariat.
One quote per month, followed by that month's rate of U-3 unemployment and labor force non-participation:
January 10, 2009: Council of Economic Advisers Chair-designate Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, economic advisor to Vice President-Elect Joe Biden: "As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical (stimulus) package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan." (Unemployment 7.8 percent, labor force non-participation 34.3 percent)
February 25, 2009: Vice President Joe Biden: "We have an opportunity to get the nation back to work and back on its feet....And we have to do it right." (8.3 percent, 34.3 percent)
March 15, 2009: Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke: "We'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year." (8.7 percent, 34.4 percent)
April 14, 2009: President Barack Obama: "[W]e are beginning to see glimmers of hope." (8.9 percent, 34.4 percent)
May 18, 2009: CNNMoney: "Job recovery may be on the way." (9.4 percent, 34.3 percent)
January 6, 2012: Matt O'Brien, The New Republic: "This finally might be an economic recovery worthy of the name." (8.3 percent, 36.3 percent)
February 6, 2012: White House Press Secretary Jay Carney: “Let’s look at some of the facts, which include that a large percentage of that [decline in labor force participation] is due to younger people getting more education, which in the end is an economic positive.” (8.3 percent, 36.1 percent)
March 9, 2012: Ezra Klein's WonkBlog, The Washington Post: "There are also some reasons to think this recovery can sustain itself through 2012. Ever since the recession ended in mid-2009, the U.S. private sector has been consistently hiring workers." (8.2 percent, 36.2 percent)
April 26, 2012: Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Alan B. Krueger: "Expanding middle class jobs in manufacturing, especially advanced manufacturing, is part of the President’s comprehensive strategy for reversing the middle-class jobs deficit." (8.1 percent, 36.4 percent)
May 6, 2012: Vice President Joe Biden: "Look, this goes up and down. But there's been a steady path—26 months straight employment gain, private employment." (8.2 percent, 36.2 percent)
June 8, 2012: President Barack Obama: "The private sector is doing fine. Where we're seeing weaknesses in our economy have to do with state and local government." (June unemployment and labor force non-participation will be released next month. Unemployment applications climbed in mid-June and again in late June. The four-week average of new jobless claims is the highest it has been since December.)
February 6, 2012: White House Press Secretary Jay Carney: “Let’s look at some of the facts, which include that a large percentage of that [decline in labor force participation] is due to younger people getting more education, which in the end is an economic positive.” (8.3 percent, 36.1 percent)
March 9, 2012: Ezra Klein's WonkBlog, The Washington Post: "There are also some reasons to think this recovery can sustain itself through 2012. Ever since the recession ended in mid-2009, the U.S. private sector has been consistently hiring workers." (8.2 percent, 36.2 percent)
April 26, 2012: Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Alan B. Krueger: "Expanding middle class jobs in manufacturing, especially advanced manufacturing, is part of the President’s comprehensive strategy for reversing the middle-class jobs deficit." (8.1 percent, 36.4 percent)
May 6, 2012: Vice President Joe Biden: "Look, this goes up and down. But there's been a steady path—26 months straight employment gain, private employment." (8.2 percent, 36.2 percent)
June 8, 2012: President Barack Obama: "The private sector is doing fine. Where we're seeing weaknesses in our economy have to do with state and local government." (June unemployment and labor force non-participation will be released next month. Unemployment applications climbed in mid-June and again in late June. The four-week average of new jobless claims is the highest it has been since December.)