DRUDGEREPORT.COM Caucus voting open

[91cavgt]

Current updated numbers as of 7:11 pm.

READERS FROM IOWA VOTED IN DRUDGE CAUCUS:

PAUL 33.55%
SANTORUM 20.89%
ROMNEY 20.54%
GINGRICH 10.28%
PERRY 7.37%

[mikec]

You don't. I said it would be inflated by that much because his voters are primarily the youth. And they do not turn out traditionally. Read my previous post.

Yes, I do. Where do you get the factual basis for their not turning out? It's conjecture. Which is my premise. All that I was trying to say is that you can't really make such a definitive statement when it is NOT born out by stats. Nothing more, nothing less.

Ehh, fuck it. You are a smart guy, I generally agree with what you say, and this is pointless. Though I do hope that you are proven wrong tomorrow. 8)

[CJ]

Yes, I do. Where do you get the factual basis for their not turning out? It's conjecture. Which is my premise. All that I was trying to say is that you can't really make such a definitive statement when it is NOT born out by stats. Nothing more, nothing less.

Ehh, fuck it. You are a smart guy, I generally agree with what you say, and this is pointless. Though I do hope that you are proven wrong tomorrow. 8)

You must understand that sitting on your ass clicking "Ron Paul" on your computer is a lot easier and more convenient than participating in the caucus. Since the majority of online poll takers are statistically younger, and the majority of supporters Ron Paul are younger, there is most likely going to be a large gap in who votes on a website, and who actually participates in the caucus. All of them will be affected, but I feel Ron Paul will be the most affected. I'm pretty sure everyone in here knows I'm entirely theorizing and I'm giving the basis for my theory, and I'm not going to pull our charts and references. I could be wrong as hell, I just presume he isn't going to get over 1/3rd the vote in a 5 candidate race.

[mikec]

And on post 45 CJ, I would never do that man. I am still learning in life and I wish that I had the education a lot of you guys have the benefit of. Not trying to be an ass, but I do try to draw out more insight in areas that I don't have that benefit. I am learning, as are you.

And I really wish that it didn't come across as an over reaction. Not sure why that is presumably so.

[CJ]

And on post 45 CJ, I would never do that man. I am still learning in life and I wish that I had the education a lot of you guys have the benefit of. Not trying to be an ass, but I do try to draw out more insight in areas that I don't have that benefit. I am learning, as are you.

And I really wish that it didn't come across as an over reaction. Not sure why that is presumably so.

No sweat, we're all good, just need to not let politics get the best of us. We're on the same team. Except for majorownage, he crazy.

[CJ]

Initial polling data coming in from the caucus shows Santorum @ 26%, Ron Paul @ 23% - Obviously this could swing wildly as only 1% of locations are reporting.

[mikec]

Initial polling data coming in from the caucus shows Santorum @ 26%, Ron Paul @ 23% - Obviously this could swing wildly as only 1% of locations are reporting.

Too early to start kicking dirt...

Though I do hope that Santorum takes it over Romney.

[Vertnut]

Initial polling data coming in from the caucus shows Santorum @ 26%, Ron Paul @ 23% - Obviously this could swing wildly as only 1% of locations are reporting.

3 man race with about 13% of the vote...RP-24, Romney and Santorum at 23.

[CJ]

3 man race with about 13% of the vote...RP-24, Romney and Santorum at 23.

Yep, starting to shape up. I expected Ron Paul to win this caucus, but I'm surprised it's is this close. Santorum surged too early to allow any of the candidates to get ads to attack him, so his lead is probably only temporary. Romney will likely pass him.

[Vertnut]

Romney, Paul, and Santorum all at 23% with 26% of the vote in.

[mikec]

45% reporting and this shit is TIGHT! 24S 24R 22P. Dammit!

Starting to look like the only ones that knew what the hell they were talking about were the two above me!

[Vertnut]

45% reporting and this shit is TIGHT! 24S 24R 22P. Dammit!

Starting to look like the only ones that knew what the hell they were talking about were the two above me!

Props to CJ on the inflated poll numbers on Drudge. Keep in mind, a "winner" doesn't mean as much as being "eliminated". Not a good night for Bachmann, Perry, or Huntsman

[mikec]

Props to CJ on the inflated poll numbers on Drudge. Keep in mind, a "winner" doesn't mean as much as being "eliminated". Not a good night for Bachmann, Perry, or Huntsman

Mehh, the numbers are what they are. Even though he is a bit nuts and weak in foreign policy, I still believe he was the best choice for pulling us back from the abyss.

Hopefully Santorum wins it, as he would be my second pick. Just know that we need to get away from these establishment picks!

And agreed, props to CJ for the insight. Sometimes a gut feeling beats stats.

[mikec]

I can tell now that I'm going to bed pissed off. Romny, the establishment hack that will keep us going in the same exact damned direction we've been heading, is now in the lead.

Dios Mio.

[Avery'sDad]

Doesn't matter. Obama will wipe the floor with whoever wins.

Voted.

Paul with 7% lead. This will be funny when the Iowa numbers come out showing Paul lost by ~2%. Just my prediction.

Are you a wizard?