Double Dip Recession or not?

[Captain Crawfish]

What do the DFWMustang economists think?

[Denny]

We never left the first one. Funny thing. Nothing is ever called a "depression" until we look back at it. Just watch.

I love the people that gauge the state of our economy on something as stupid as the stock market. Everything that gauges our economical strength is also manipulated by measuring different specifics in the research. Just look at our unemployment figures and the CPI.

It's all a joke... nothing more than a fucking joke.

Sorry for chiming in as I'm not an economist or anything.

[UserX]

We never left the first one.

Took the words right outta my mouth.

[dblack1]

Agree, never left the first one.

Everything is a numbers game, especially corporate profits.

Main Street is a much better indicator over Wall Street.

They say consumer spending was up last month, not really, just everything costs more, and they do include gas and groceries in that spending.

[SMEGMA STENCH]

With the asshats refusing to cut spending and debt looming like the shadow of death, I'm going to have to say that the first dip was the recession, the second will be a great depression.

[slow99]

Man, I wonder what this thread's going to look like.

[AdamLX]

Man, I wonder what this thread's going to look like.

[Denny]

Man, I wonder what this thread's going to look like.

I posted the humor already.

[slow99]

I posted the humor already.

Hey, I'm not optimistic about shit either!

[Denny]

Hey, I'm not optimistic about shit either!

Different formulas, same conclusion?

[slow99]

Different formulas, same conclusion?

The way our demographics stack up, it's just a different environment imo. Most people were looking for this sharp, spiked recovery that just isn't going to happen when you realize what we went through in 2008-2009 and, notably, our fiscal position and demographics going forward. Truth is we're still uncomfortably (for me) below our potential right now and not catching up quickly - the output gap.

[AdamLX]

I'm just waiting for the wizards in D.C. to consult their crystal ball and forecast when we will be pulling back out of this. You know the same guys that said last summer would be the recovery, then this summer and now...

[Denny]

I was hoping for some sort of recovery, but QE2 killed that thought for me... especially seeing the awesome results of both. LOL

Now the Fed is freezing rates at next-to-nothing for 2 years?!?! And QE3?

I just don't see continuing with the same old failed "corrective actions" are going to help. Nothing to show me that this can be turned around, slowed or even halted.

[Broncojohnny]

I was hoping for some sort of recovery, but QE2 killed that thought for me... especially seeing the awesome results of both. LOL

Now the Fed is freezing rates at next-to-nothing for 2 years?!?! And QE3?

I just don't see continuing with the same old failed "corrective actions" are going to help. Nothing to show me that this can be turned around, slowed or even halted.

Hopefully they learned their lesson and will just stop with their bullshit. We will see.

I have a hard time saying the numbers on CPI, unemployment and whatever else are cooked up when they just plain suck.

Corporate profits look great because of the week dollar and the number of companies that do foreign business.

Also, keep in mind, to have a recession you need two quarters of negative growth. We are still a good distance from that. Although it is possible that they could revise previous numbers slightly lower.

[Denny]

Hopefully they learned their lesson and will just stop with their bullshit. We will see.

I have a hard time saying the numbers on CPI, unemployment and whatever else are cooked up when they just plain suck.

Corporate profits look great because of the week dollar and the number of companies that do foreign business.

They're not cooked, rather reformulated to make it look "not so bad."

CPI only uses certain categories of consumer spending to calculate inflatio. Unemployment only uses those actively pulling unemployment benefits.